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Avro v Guiseley AFC

Avro
0–1Full time
Guiseley AFC

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33
Avro 0–1 Guiseley AFC AVRO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Avro win52%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.833
The market’s Brier score0.637

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Avro win at 52%.
  2. 3′KICK-OFF Avro v Guiseley AFC
  3. 6′Little has changed for our model: Avro 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–27
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Avro 0–0 Guiseley AFC
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Avro 0–0 Guiseley AFC
  6. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Avro 0–1 Guiseley AFC
  7. FTFULL TIME Avro 0–1 Guiseley AFC
  8. FTAvro 0–1 Guiseley AFC · Avro win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Avro win52%
Draw20%
Guiseley AFC win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avro winPublished 10 Oct 15:19
52% The market39%
Us52%
Market39%

We make Avro a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 03:55
Our probability · avro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Avro win52%39%+14
Draw20%26%−6
Guiseley AFC win28%35%−7
Over 2.5 goals72%56%+16
Both teams to score70%60%+10
Over 1.5 goals89%77%+12
Over 3.5 goals52%36%+16
Avro or draw72%65%+7
Avro clean sheet21%––
Guiseley AFC clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%
0123450 2.2 3.9 2.9 1 5.3 7.7 6.1 3.2 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 4.1 6.3 4.9 2.6 4 2.3 3.5 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Avro down, Guiseley AFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

AVRO

WDWWWW1–0 · 4–4 · 5–3 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 5–3

GUISELEY AFC

WLWWLW3–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cleethorpes Town12+2027
2Avro10+1425
3Redcar Athletic12+1225
4Guiseley AFC11+1322
5Workington12+421
6Rylands12+320
7Curzon Ashton10+1019
8Alfreton Town12+518
9Warrington Town10+418
10Bury10+1016
11Gainsborough Trinity10+616
12Lancaster City12−816
13Hyde United12−814
14Ashton United10+112
15Whitby Town11−1512
16Stockton Town12−711
17Leek Town11−110
18Quorn11−910
19AFC Emley11−1210
20Bamber Bridge11−159
21Ilkeston Town12−197
22United of Manchester10−85

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.