Avro v Ashton United prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30

Avro 3–2 Ashton United AVRO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avro win~~53%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avro win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avro was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–27
1′KICK-OFF Avro v Ashton United
8′Avro find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–15–11
8′We published Avro at 53%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–15–11
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Avro 1–0 Ashton United
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Avro win: 53% at kick-off, 73% now
15′A goal for Avro on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–7–4
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Avro 2–0 Ashton United
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Avro win: 53% at kick-off, 89% now
16′We published Avro at 53%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–7–3
19′We published Avro at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
20′Avro score on 20′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Avro 3–0 Ashton United
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Avro win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
21′We published Avro at 53%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
45′HALF-TIME Avro 3–0 Ashton United
46′SECOND HALF Avro 3–0 Ashton United
65′We published Avro at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′Ashton United find the net on 77′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Avro 3–1 Ashton United
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′A goal for Ashton United on 79′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 88–11–1
80′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 88–11–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Avro 3–2 Ashton United
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Avro win: 53% at kick-off, 88% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Avro win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Avro 3–2 Ashton United
FTAvro 3–2 Ashton United · Avro win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avro 53%, draw 21%, Ashton United 27%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Avro v Ashton UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Avro win53%

Draw21%

Ashton United win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avro

Ashton United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Avro	13	+9	25
16	Ashton United	13	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avro winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

53% The market52%

Us53%

~~Market~~52%

We make Avro a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avro v Ashton United~~2.09 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~5 v 16

~~The market · Avro win~~52% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Avro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avro win	53%	52%	+1
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Ashton United win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	68%	59%	+9
Both teams to score	66%	60%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	79%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	47%	39%	+8
Avro or draw	73%	76%	−3
Avro clean sheet	24%	–	–
Ashton United clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.9 4.6 3.1 1 6.5 8.6 6.2 3.0 2 6.4 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.5 6.3 4.5 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avro down, Ashton United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,402 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 151 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Avro at home: 3.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ashton United away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Avro, 1.43 for Ashton United. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

AVRO

WWWLLL4–3 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

ASHTON UNITED

LLDDDL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
5	Avro	13	+9	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	13	0	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7