Ashton United v Redcar Athletic prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Ashton United 1–2 Redcar Athletic REDCAR ATHLETIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Redcar Athletic win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Redcar Athletic win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Redcar Athletic 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
1′KICK-OFF Ashton United v Redcar Athletic
7′Little has changed for our model: Redcar Athletic 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–25–45
16′A goal for Redcar Athletic on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Ashton United 0–1 Redcar Athletic
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Redcar Athletic win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
17′We said Redcar Athletic at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
41′Redcar Athletic score on 40′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–93
41′We said Redcar Athletic at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 2–6–93
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ashton United 0–2 Redcar Athletic
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Redcar Athletic win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Ashton United 0–2 Redcar Athletic
46′SECOND HALF Ashton United 0–2 Redcar Athletic
52′We said Redcar Athletic at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Redcar Athletic win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Ashton United 1–2 Redcar Athletic
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Redcar Athletic win: 46% at kick-off, 88% now
80′Ashton United find the net on 79′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
80′We said Redcar Athletic at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–2 · 1–10–89
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Redcar Athletic win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Ashton United 1–2 Redcar Athletic
FTAshton United 1–2 Redcar Athletic · Redcar Athletic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Redcar Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ashton United 30%, draw 24%, Redcar Athletic 46%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Ashton United v Redcar AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ashton United win30%

Draw24%

Redcar Athletic win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ashton United

Redcar Athletic

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redcar athletic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Redcar Athletic a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ashton United v Redcar Athletic~~1.22 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 31~~15 v 1

~~The market · Redcar Athletic win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Redcar Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ashton United win	30%	29%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Redcar Athletic win	46%	46%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Ashton United or draw	54%	54%	0
Ashton United clean sheet	21%	–	–
Redcar Athletic clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 9.9 7.6 4.1 1 7.7 11.2 9.1 4.9 2 4.5 7.0 5.5 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ashton United down, Redcar Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,393 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 142 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Ashton United at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Redcar Athletic away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Ashton United, 1.60 for Redcar Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug

ASHTON UNITED

LLLDDD1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

REDCAR ATHLETIC

WDWLWW3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	14	+19	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	12	+11	25
5	Rylands	14	+4	23
6	Gainsborough Trinity	12	+9	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	+8	22
8	Warrington Town	12	+5	22
9	Workington	14	0	21
10	Lancaster City	14	−7	20
11	Bury	11	+11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	+4	19
13	Whitby Town	13	−14	16
14	Hyde United	14	−10	15
15	Ashton United	12	+1	14
16	Quorn	13	−6	14
17	Stockton Town	14	−8	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	13	−13	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	−16	10
21	United of Manchester	12	−8	7
22	Ilkeston Town	14	−26	7