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Ashton United v Alfreton Town

Ashton United

0–0Full time

Alfreton Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Ashton United 0–0 Alfreton Town ASHTON UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ashton United win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ashton United win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Ashton United v Alfreton Town
2′Little has changed for our model: Ashton United 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Ashton United win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Ashton United 0–0 Alfreton Town
46′SECOND HALF Ashton United 0–0 Alfreton Town
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Ashton United win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–45–27
58′We said Ashton United at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–25
65′We said Ashton United at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
89′We said Ashton United at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
90′We said Ashton United at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ashton United win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Ashton United 0–0 Alfreton Town
FTAshton United 0–0 Alfreton Town · Ashton United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Ashton United win39%

Draw25%

Alfreton Town win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ashton United

Alfreton Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ashton united winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Ashton United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ashton united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ashton United win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Alfreton Town win	36%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−4
Ashton United or draw	64%	64%	+1
Ashton United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Alfreton Town clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 9.0 5.8 2.6 1 9.5 11.7 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 3.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ashton United down, Alfreton Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ashton United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Alfreton Town away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Ashton United, 1.33 for Alfreton Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Northern since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

ASHTON UNITED

DLLLDD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

ALFRETON TOWN

WLWLWL4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6