Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › Alfreton Town v Bury

Alfreton Town v Bury

Alfreton Town

2–3Full time

Bury

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Alfreton Town 2–3 Bury ALFRETON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alfreton Town win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.629

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alfreton Town win at 39%.
3′KICK-OFF Alfreton Town v Bury
6′Much as we predicted: Alfreton Town was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–35
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Alfreton Town 0–1 Bury
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Alfreton Town 0–2 Bury
26′Bury ahead on 24′ through O. Robinson. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Alfreton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Bury win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Alfreton Town win 4%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Alfreton Town 1–2 Bury
45′HALF-TIME Alfreton Town 1–2 Bury
47′SECOND HALF Alfreton Town 1–2 Bury
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Alfreton Town 2–2 Bury
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Alfreton Town 2–3 Bury
FTFULL TIME Alfreton Town 2–3 Bury
FTAlfreton Town 2–3 Bury · Alfreton Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alfreton Town win39%

Draw25%

Bury win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alfreton town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Alfreton Town a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alfreton town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alfreton Town win	39%	28%	+11
Draw	25%	24%	0
Bury win	36%	48%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	52%	59%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−9
Alfreton Town or draw	64%	52%	+12
Alfreton Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bury clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 8.9 5.7 2.6 1 9.4 11.6 7.8 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 3.1 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alfreton Town down, Bury across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Alfreton Town at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bury away: 0.80 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Alfreton Town, 1.34 for Bury. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

ALFRETON TOWN

LWLWLW1–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

BURY

WLWLWL1–0 · 0–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5