Alfreton Town v AFC Emley prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alfreton TownDrawAFC Emley

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alfreton Town 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alfreton Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alfreton Town 53%, draw 23%, AFC Emley 24%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Alfreton Town v AFC EmleyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Alfreton Town win53%

Draw23%

AFC Emley win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alfreton Town

AFC Emley

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alfreton town winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Alfreton Town a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alfreton Town v AFC Emley~~1.71 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 17~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alfreton Town win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
AFC Emley win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Alfreton Town or draw	76%	–	–
Alfreton Town clean sheet	35%	–	–
AFC Emley clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.2 7.1 3.6 1 11.1 10.9 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.4 5.0 3 5.2 5.4 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alfreton Town down, AFC Emley across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Alfreton Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Emley away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Alfreton Town, 1.06 for AFC Emley. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Sept

ALFRETON TOWN

WLWLDD1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

AFC EMLEY

LLLDWW1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10