AFC Emley v Lancaster City prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

AFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City AFC EMLEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Emley win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.564

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.648

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Emley win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: AFC Emley was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
1′KICK-OFF AFC Emley v Lancaster City
40′AFC Emley score on 40′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' AFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' AFC Emley win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME AFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City
46′SECOND HALF AFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City
50′AFC Emley find the net on 50′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
50′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' AFC Emley 2–0 Lancaster City
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' AFC Emley win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' AFC Emley
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' AFC Emley win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
60′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' AFC Emley win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
77′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' AFC Emley win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
89′We published AFC Emley at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME AFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City
FTAFC Emley 1–0 Lancaster City · AFC Emley win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AFC Emley just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Emley 39%, draw 24%, Lancaster City 37%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on AFC Emley v Lancaster CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AFC Emley win39%

Draw24%

Lancaster City win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Emley

Lancaster City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc emley winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make AFC Emley a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Emley v Lancaster City~~1.46 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~18 v 11

~~The market · AFC Emley win~~35% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AFC Emley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Emley win	39%	35%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Lancaster City win	37%	40%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
AFC Emley or draw	63%	60%	+3
AFC Emley clean sheet	25%	–	–
Lancaster City clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.7 8.5 5.7 2.7 1 8.8 11.3 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Emley down, Lancaster City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,403 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

AFC Emley at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lancaster City away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for AFC Emley, 1.40 for Lancaster City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 12 Sept

AFC EMLEY

LLLLDW0–4 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

LANCASTER CITY

WWLDWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Avro	14	+10	28
5	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	14	−1	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7