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AFC Emley v Gainsborough Trinity

AFC Emley

1–2Full time

Gainsborough Trinity

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AFC Emley 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gainsborough Trinity win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gainsborough Trinity win at 46%.
4′KICK-OFF AFC Emley v Gainsborough Trinity
7′Much as we predicted: Gainsborough Trinity was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
45′HALF-TIME AFC Emley 0–0 Gainsborough Trinity
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' AFC Emley 1–0 Gainsborough Trinity
47′SECOND HALF AFC Emley 1–0 Gainsborough Trinity
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' AFC Emley 1–1 Gainsborough Trinity
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' AFC Emley 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
FTFULL TIME AFC Emley 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
FTAFC Emley 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity · Gainsborough Trinity win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Emley win30%

Draw24%

Gainsborough Trinity win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gainsborough trinity winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Gainsborough Trinity a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gainsborough trinity win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Emley win	30%	22%	+8
Draw	24%	24%	0
Gainsborough Trinity win	46%	53%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
AFC Emley or draw	54%	47%	+8
AFC Emley clean sheet	21%	–	–
Gainsborough Trinity clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 9.9 7.5 4.0 1 7.8 11.2 9.0 4.8 2 4.6 7.0 5.5 2.9 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Emley down, Gainsborough Trinity across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AFC Emley at home: 1.00 scored, 2.20 conceded a game (last 5). Gainsborough Trinity away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for AFC Emley, 1.58 for Gainsborough Trinity. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

AFC EMLEY

DDLLLL0–0 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–4

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY

LDWLLW0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 6–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5