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Wingate & Finchley v Stanway Rovers

Wingate & Finchley
4–1Full time
Stanway Rovers

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Wingate & Finchley 4–1 Stanway Rovers WINGATE & FINCHLEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wingate & Finchley win57%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.278
The market’s Brier score0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wingate & Finchley win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Wingate & Finchley 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–20–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wingate & Finchley v Stanway Rovers
  4. 5′Little has changed for our model: Wingate & Finchley 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
  5. 34′Wingate & Finchley score on 34′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–7
  6. 34′We said Wingate & Finchley at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–7
  7. 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–7
  8. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Wingate & Finchley 1–0 Stanway Rovers
  9. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Wingate & Finchley win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
  10. 37′Wingate & Finchley find the net on 37′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  11. 37′We said Wingate & Finchley at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  12. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Wingate & Finchley 2–0 Stanway Rovers
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Wingate & Finchley win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
  14. 38′A goal for Stanway Rovers on 37′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–16–6
  15. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Stanway Rovers
  16. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Wingate & Finchley win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
  17. 39′R. Charles scores for Stanway Rovers on 38′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–16–6
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Stanway Rovers
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Stanway Rovers
  20. 54′We said Wingate & Finchley at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  21. 70′Wingate & Finchley score on 69′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  22. 70′We said Wingate & Finchley at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  23. 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  24. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Wingate & Finchley 3–1 Stanway Rovers
  25. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Wingate & Finchley win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
  26. 74′Wingate & Finchley find the net on 73′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Wingate & Finchley 4–1 Stanway Rovers
  28. 75′We said Wingate & Finchley at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 75′Wingate & Finchley ahead on 72′ through C. Shann. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Wingate & Finchley 4–1 Stanway Rovers
  32. FTWingate & Finchley 4–1 Stanway Rovers · Wingate & Finchley win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wingate & Finchley are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wingate & Finchley 57%, draw 20%, Stanway Rovers 23%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Wingate & Finchley v Stanway RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wingate & Finchley win57%
Draw20%
Stanway Rovers win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wingate & Finchley

Stanway Rovers

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Wingate & Finchley10−414
22Stanway Rovers10−184

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wingate & finchley winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off
57% The market55%
Us57%
Market55%

We make Wingate & Finchley a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wingate & Finchley v Stanway Rovers2.07 – 1.22
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 AugW3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 14 v 414 v 22
The market · Wingate & Finchley win55% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Wingate & Finchley win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wingate & Finchley win57%55%+2
Draw20%22%−2
Stanway Rovers win23%23%0
Over 2.5 goals63%60%+3
Both teams to score60%60%0
Over 1.5 goals83%80%+3
Over 3.5 goals42%39%+3
Wingate & Finchley or draw77%77%0
Wingate & Finchley clean sheet30%––
Stanway Rovers clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.6 5.1 2.9 1 8.2 9.0 5.7 2.3 2 7.9 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 5.5 6.5 3.9 4 2.9 3.4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wingate & Finchley down, Stanway Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug

WINGATE & FINCHLEY

WLLWLW3–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–0

STANWAY ROVERS

LLLWLL1–4 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town11+1727
2Lewes12+625
3Welling United11+1024
4Dartford11+624
5Carshalton Athletic13−321
6Ramsgate12+1019
7Eastbourne Borough10+819
8Chatham Town10+918
9Burgess Hill Town10+717
10St Albans City9+517
11Dulwich Hamlet10+416
12Leatherhead11−215
13Cheshunt11−314
14Wingate & Finchley10−414
15Cray Wanderers9+512
16Whyteleafe12−312
17Aveley11−111
18Brentwood Town10−49
19Maldon & Tiptree12−189
20Three Bridges11−118
21Whitehawk12−205
22Stanway Rovers10−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.