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Wingate & Finchley v Ramsgate

Wingate & Finchley

2–0Full time

Ramsgate

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Wingate & Finchley 2–0 Ramsgate RAMSGATE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ramsgate win~~45%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.658

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ramsgate win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ramsgate 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
1′KICK-OFF Wingate & Finchley v Ramsgate
45′HALF-TIME Wingate & Finchley 0–0 Ramsgate
46′SECOND HALF Wingate & Finchley 0–0 Ramsgate
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ramsgate win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
51′Wingate & Finchley find the net on 51′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–24–11
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Wingate & Finchley 1–0 Ramsgate
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ramsgate win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Wingate & Finchley win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Ramsgate win 11%)
52′We said Ramsgate at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 65–24–11
57′We said Ramsgate at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
57′⚽ GOAL · 51' Wingate & Finchley 1–0 Ramsgate · F. Hale-Brown
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Wingate & Finchley 2–0 Ramsgate
90′A. Chukwu scores for Wingate & Finchley on 74′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′We said Ramsgate at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ramsgate win: 45% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Wingate & Finchley 2–0 Ramsgate
FTWingate & Finchley 2–0 Ramsgate · Ramsgate win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Wingate & Finchley win34%

Draw21%

Ramsgate win45%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wingate & Finchley

Ramsgate

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ramsgate	11	+12	19
16	Wingate & Finchley	9	−6	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ramsgate winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ramsgate a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ramsgate win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wingate & Finchley win	34%	34%	−1
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Ramsgate win	45%	41%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	58%	+8
Both teams to score	66%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	44%	37%	+7
Wingate & Finchley or draw	55%	59%	−4
Wingate & Finchley clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ramsgate clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 6.6 5.6 3.5 1 5.7 9.1 8.6 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 7.3 6.7 4.1 3 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wingate & Finchley down, Ramsgate across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,428 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wingate & Finchley at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ramsgate away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Wingate & Finchley, 1.85 for Ramsgate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIN 0–1 RAM · RAM 1–1 WIN

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

WINGATE & FINCHLEY

WWLLWL1–0 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–2

RAMSGATE

WDWLWW5–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	11	+17	27
2	Welling United	11	+10	24
3	Dartford	11	+6	24
4	Lewes	11	+5	22
5	Carshalton Athletic	13	−3	21
6	Ramsgate	11	+12	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
9	St Albans City	9	+5	17
10	Dulwich Hamlet	9	+6	16
11	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
12	Burgess Hill Town	9	+5	14
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
14	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
15	Aveley	11	−1	11
16	Wingate & Finchley	9	−6	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
18	Whyteleafe	11	−8	9
19	Maldon & Tiptree	12	−18	9
20	Three Bridges	10	−10	8
21	Whitehawk	11	−15	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	−18	4