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Wingate & Finchley v Carshalton Athletic

Wingate & Finchley

4–2Full time

Carshalton Athletic

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Wingate & Finchley 4–2 Carshalton Athletic WINGATE & FINCHLEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wingate & Finchley win~~44%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.603

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wingate & Finchley win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wingate & Finchley 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–34
1′KICK-OFF Wingate & Finchley v Carshalton Athletic
6′Wingate & Finchley find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–18–15
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Wingate & Finchley 1–0 Carshalton Athletic
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 66% now
7′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–15
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–12
38′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
44′A goal for Carshalton Athletic on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–35–29
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Wingate & Finchley 1–1 Carshalton Athletic
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic
46′SECOND HALF Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic
47′Wingate & Finchley score on 45′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–8
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
53′Wingate & Finchley find the net on 53′. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Wingate & Finchley 3–1 Carshalton Athletic
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
54′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–6–1
54′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–1
55′Wingate & Finchley ahead on 52′ through A. Nzala. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–1
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
61′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
70′A goal for Carshalton Athletic on 70′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Wingate & Finchley 3–2 Carshalton Athletic
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 80% now
71′F. Saraiva scores for Carshalton Athletic on 69′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
72′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 3–2 · 81–16–3
72′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 81–16–3
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
77′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
86′PENALTY MISSED · 85' Wingate & Finchley
87′Wingate & Finchley score on 87′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Wingate & Finchley 4–2 Carshalton Athletic
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Wingate & Finchley win: 44% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We said Wingate & Finchley at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
88′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Wingate & Finchley 4–2 Carshalton Athletic
FTWingate & Finchley 4–2 Carshalton Athletic · Wingate & Finchley win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wingate & Finchley are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wingate & Finchley 44%, draw 22%, Carshalton Athletic 34%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Wingate & Finchley v Carshalton AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Wingate & Finchley win44%

Draw22%

Carshalton Athletic win34%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wingate & Finchley

Carshalton Athletic

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wingate & finchley winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

44% The market37%

Us44%

~~Market~~37%

We make Wingate & Finchley a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wingate & Finchley v Carshalton Athletic~~1.71 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 22~~12 v 5

~~The market · Wingate & Finchley win~~37% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wingate & Finchley win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wingate & Finchley win	44%	37%	+7
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Carshalton Athletic win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Wingate & Finchley or draw	66%	62%	+4
Wingate & Finchley clean sheet	23%	–	–
Carshalton Athletic clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 6.6 4.5 2.3 1 7.5 9.9 7.6 3.8 2 6.0 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 3.5 5.0 3.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wingate & Finchley down, Carshalton Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wingate & Finchley at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Carshalton Athletic away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Wingate & Finchley, 1.48 for Carshalton Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAR 2–0 WIN · CAR 4–1 WIN · WIN 2–2 CAR · WIN 3–2 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

WINGATE & FINCHLEY

LLWLWW1–4 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

CARSHALTON ATHLETIC

WWLLLD3–2 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	12	+5	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	11	+5	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17
13	Whyteleafe	13	−2	15
14	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4