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Model 1.2

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Whyteleafe v Dartford

Whyteleafe
2–1Full time
Dartford

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Whyteleafe 2–1 Dartford DARTFORD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dartford win50%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.821
The market’s Brier score0.931

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dartford win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Dartford was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Whyteleafe v Dartford
  4. 6′Much as we predicted: Dartford was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
  5. 22′A goal for Whyteleafe on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 54–24–22
  6. 22′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 54–24–22
  7. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Whyteleafe 1–0 Dartford
  8. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
  9. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Whyteleafe win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Dartford win 22%)
  10. 24′T. Aromolaran scores for Whyteleafe on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 54–24–22
  11. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 56–25–20
  13. 31′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Whyteleafe 1–0 Dartford
  15. 46′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Whyteleafe 1–0 Dartford
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  18. 59′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
  19. 62′Dartford score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–47–32
  20. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Whyteleafe 1–1 Dartford
  21. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, 32% now
  22. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Whyteleafe win 21%)
  23. 63′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 21–48–31
  24. 66′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–51–29
  25. 66′Whyteleafe find the net on 66′. 2–1. 2–1 · 71–23–6
  26. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Whyteleafe 2–1 Dartford
  27. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, 6% now
  28. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Whyteleafe win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
  29. 68′Whyteleafe ahead on 65′ through T. Aromolaran. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–22–6
  30. 72′We said Dartford at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
  31. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dartford win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  32. FTFULL TIME Whyteleafe 2–1 Dartford
  33. FTWhyteleafe 2–1 Dartford · Dartford win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dartford are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Whyteleafe 28%, draw 22%, Dartford 50%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Whyteleafe v DartfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Whyteleafe win28%
Draw22%
Dartford win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Whyteleafe

Dartford

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Dartford11+624
16Whyteleafe12−312

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dartford winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:44 · locked at kick-off
50% The market54%
Us50%
Market54%

We make Dartford a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Whyteleafe v Dartford1.29 – 1.82
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 AugW3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 12 v 2416 v 4
The market · Dartford win54% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Dartford win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Whyteleafe win28%23%+5
Draw22%23%−1
Dartford win50%54%−4
Over 2.5 goals60%57%+3
Both teams to score59%58%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%36%+2
Whyteleafe or draw50%46%+4
Whyteleafe clean sheet17%––
Dartford clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.3 8.7 7.4 4.5 2.1 1 6.3 9.9 9.3 5.6 2.6 2 3.8 6.6 5.9 3.6 3 2.9 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Whyteleafe down, Dartford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

WHYTELEAFE

WDLLWW4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 5–0

DARTFORD

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town11+1727
2Lewes12+625
3Welling United11+1024
4Dartford11+624
5Carshalton Athletic13−321
6Ramsgate12+1019
7Eastbourne Borough10+819
8Chatham Town10+918
9Burgess Hill Town10+717
10St Albans City9+517
11Dulwich Hamlet10+416
12Leatherhead11−215
13Cheshunt11−314
14Wingate & Finchley10−414
15Cray Wanderers9+512
16Whyteleafe12−312
17Aveley11−111
18Brentwood Town10−49
19Maldon & Tiptree12−189
20Three Bridges11−118
21Whitehawk12−205
22Stanway Rovers10−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.