Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Whitehawk v Ramsgate

Whitehawk v Ramsgate

Whitehawk

1–4Full time

Ramsgate

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Whitehawk 1–4 Ramsgate RAMSGATE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ramsgate win~~49%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ramsgate win at 49%.
4′Much as we predicted: Ramsgate was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
4′KICK-OFF Whitehawk v Ramsgate
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Whitehawk 0–1 Ramsgate
24′A goal for Ramsgate on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–73
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ramsgate win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Whitehawk 0–2 Ramsgate
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Whitehawk 1–2 Ramsgate
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Whitehawk 1–3 Ramsgate
45′HALF-TIME Whitehawk 1–3 Ramsgate
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Whitehawk 1–4 Ramsgate
47′SECOND HALF Whitehawk 1–4 Ramsgate
FTFULL TIME Whitehawk 1–4 Ramsgate
FTWhitehawk 1–4 Ramsgate · Ramsgate win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Whitehawk win29%

Draw22%

Ramsgate win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ramsgate winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ramsgate a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ramsgate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Whitehawk win	29%	26%	+3
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Ramsgate win	49%	50%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	−1
Whitehawk or draw	51%	50%	+1
Whitehawk clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ramsgate clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 8.1 7.0 4.3 2.0 1 6.1 9.7 9.2 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.8 6.1 3.8 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Whitehawk down, Ramsgate across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Whitehawk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ramsgate away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Whitehawk, 1.85 for Ramsgate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WHI 2–2 RAM · RAM 3–2 WHI

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

WHITEHAWK

LDLWLL1–5 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

RAMSGATE

LWDWLW0–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4