Welling United v Leatherhead prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Welling United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Welling United 51%, draw 21%, Leatherhead 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Welling United v LeatherheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Welling United win51%

Draw21%

Leatherhead win27%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welling United

Leatherhead

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · welling united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Welling United a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Welling United v Leatherhead~~1.89 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 15~~2 v 13

~~The market · Welling United win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Welling United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Welling United win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Leatherhead win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	36%	+4
Welling United or draw	73%	73%	0
Welling United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Leatherhead clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.0 5.9 3.6 1 8.3 9.6 6.5 2.9 2 7.3 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.6 5.8 3.7 4 2.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Welling United down, Leatherhead across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.3% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Welling United at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Leatherhead away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Welling United, 1.31 for Leatherhead. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LEA 4–1 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

WELLING UNITED

WWWLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–3

LEATHERHEAD

LWDDLL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	+13	24
5	Dartford	13	+2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	+5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	−6	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	−17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	−20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	−20	6