Welling United v Carshalton Athletic prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Welling UnitedDrawCarshalton Athletic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Welling United 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Welling United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Welling United 47%, draw 22%, Carshalton Athletic 31%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Welling United v Carshalton AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Welling United win47%

Draw22%

Carshalton Athletic win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welling United

Carshalton Athletic

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · welling united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Welling United a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Welling United v Carshalton Athletic~~1.76 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 22~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Welling United win	47%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Carshalton Athletic win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Welling United or draw	69%	–	–
Welling United clean sheet	25%	–	–
Carshalton Athletic clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 6.4 4.2 1 8.0 10.0 7.2 3.4 2 6.6 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 3.9 5.3 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Welling United down, Carshalton Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.3% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Welling United at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Carshalton Athletic away: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Welling United, 1.40 for Carshalton Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WEL 2–1 CAR · CAR 2–1 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 15 Sept

WELLING UNITED

WWWLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–3

CARSHALTON ATHLETIC

WLLLDL3–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	+13	24
5	Dartford	13	+2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	+5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	−6	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	−17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	−20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	−20	6