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Welling United v Burgess Hill Town
Welling United
Burgess Hill TownNon League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Welling United win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Welling United 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
- 1′KICK-OFF Welling United v Burgess Hill Town
- 7′Little has changed for our model: Welling United 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–36
- 29′Welling United find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 29′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
- 30′Welling United ahead on 28′ through F. Shomotun. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
- 45′HALF-TIME Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
- 46′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
- 46′SECOND HALF Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
- 60′A goal for Welling United on 60′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 60′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Welling United 2–0 Burgess Hill Town
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 94% now
- 63′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 68′Burgess Hill Town score on 68′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 78–19–4
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Welling United 2–1 Burgess Hill Town
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
- 69′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
- 71′Welling United find the net on 70′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
- 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Welling United 3–1 Burgess Hill Town
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
- 74′A goal for Welling United on 74′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Welling United 4–1 Burgess Hill Town
- 88′Burgess Hill Town score on 88′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town
- 89′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town
- FTWelling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town · Welling United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassWelling United are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Welling United 42%, draw 22%, Burgess Hill Town 36%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Welling United win42%
Burgess Hill Town win36%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Welling UnitedMIN
Burgess Hill TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Welling United
Burgess Hill Town
Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Welling United a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welling United win | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Burgess Hill Town win | 36% | 27% | +9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 33% | +7 |
| Welling United or draw | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Welling United clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
| Burgess Hill Town clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 28 Aug
WELLING UNITED
BURGESS HILL TOWN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 11 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Lewes | 12 | +6 | 25 |
| 3 | Welling United | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dartford | 11 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 | Carshalton Athletic | 13 | −3 | 21 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 12 | +10 | 19 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | St Albans City | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Leatherhead | 11 | −2 | 15 |
| 13 | Cheshunt | 11 | −3 | 14 |
| 14 | Wingate & Finchley | 10 | −4 | 14 |
| 15 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 16 | Whyteleafe | 12 | −3 | 12 |
| 17 | Aveley | 11 | −1 | 11 |
| 18 | Brentwood Town | 10 | −4 | 9 |
| 19 | Maldon & Tiptree | 12 | −18 | 9 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 11 | −11 | 8 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 12 | −20 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 10 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Enfield Town
Lewes
Dartford
Carshalton Athletic
Ramsgate
Eastbourne Borough
Chatham Town
St Albans City
Dulwich Hamlet
Leatherhead
Cheshunt
Wingate & Finchley
Cray Wanderers
Whyteleafe
Aveley
Brentwood Town
Maldon & Tiptree
Three Bridges
Whitehawk
Stanway Rovers