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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Welling United v Burgess Hill Town

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Welling United v Burgess Hill Town

Welling United
4–2Full time
Burgess Hill Town

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town WELLING UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Welling United win42%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.519
The market’s Brier score0.398

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Welling United win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Welling United 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Welling United v Burgess Hill Town
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Welling United 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–36
  5. 29′Welling United find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  6. 29′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  7. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
  8. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
  9. 30′Welling United ahead on 28′ through F. Shomotun. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  10. 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
  12. 46′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Welling United 1–0 Burgess Hill Town
  14. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  15. 60′A goal for Welling United on 60′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  16. 60′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  17. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Welling United 2–0 Burgess Hill Town
  18. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 94% now
  19. 63′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  20. 68′Burgess Hill Town score on 68′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 78–19–4
  21. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Welling United 2–1 Burgess Hill Town
  22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
  23. 69′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
  24. 71′Welling United find the net on 70′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  25. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  26. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Welling United 3–1 Burgess Hill Town
  27. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Welling United win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
  28. 74′A goal for Welling United on 74′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 74′We said Welling United at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 74′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Welling United 4–1 Burgess Hill Town
  32. 88′Burgess Hill Town score on 88′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  33. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town
  34. 89′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town
  36. FTWelling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town · Welling United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Welling United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Welling United 42%, draw 22%, Burgess Hill Town 36%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Welling United v Burgess Hill TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Welling United win42%
Draw22%
Burgess Hill Town win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welling United

Burgess Hill Town

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Welling United11+1024
9Burgess Hill Town10+717

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · welling united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off
42% The market48%
Us42%
Market48%

We make Welling United a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Welling United v Burgess Hill Town1.69 – 1.55
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 28 AugW4 D0 L2 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 24 v 173 v 9
The market · Welling United win48% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Welling United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Welling United win42%48%−6
Draw22%25%−3
Burgess Hill Town win36%27%+9
Over 2.5 goals62%55%+7
Both teams to score63%57%+6
Over 1.5 goals83%76%+7
Over 3.5 goals40%33%+7
Welling United or draw64%73%−9
Welling United clean sheet22%––
Burgess Hill Town clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 3.7 6.6 4.8 2.5 1 7.1 9.8 7.8 4.1 2 5.6 8.5 6.5 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Welling United down, Burgess Hill Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsBUR 2–1 WEL · WEL 1–2 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 28 Aug

WELLING UNITED

LWWWWL1–4 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

BURGESS HILL TOWN

WDDWDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town11+1727
2Lewes12+625
3Welling United11+1024
4Dartford11+624
5Carshalton Athletic13−321
6Ramsgate12+1019
7Eastbourne Borough10+819
8Chatham Town10+918
9Burgess Hill Town10+717
10St Albans City9+517
11Dulwich Hamlet10+416
12Leatherhead11−215
13Cheshunt11−314
14Wingate & Finchley10−414
15Cray Wanderers9+512
16Whyteleafe12−312
17Aveley11−111
18Brentwood Town10−49
19Maldon & Tiptree12−189
20Three Bridges11−118
21Whitehawk12−205
22Stanway Rovers10−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.