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Three Bridges v Lewes

Three Bridges

1–2Full time

Lewes

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Three Bridges 1–2 Lewes THREE BRIDGES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Three Bridges win~~43%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.530

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Three Bridges win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Three Bridges 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–36
1′KICK-OFF Three Bridges v Lewes
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Three Bridges 0–1 Lewes
10′9′ and it is 0–1: Lewes have scored. 0–1 · 22–20–58
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Three Bridges win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Lewes win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Three Bridges win 22%)
11′We said Three Bridges at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–20–58
22′We said Three Bridges at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–60
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Three Bridges 1–1 Lewes
35′Three Bridges ahead on 29′ through A. Ayodeji. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–29–33
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Three Bridges win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Three Bridges win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lewes win 33%)
40′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 37–30–32
45′HALF-TIME Three Bridges 1–1 Lewes
46′SECOND HALF Three Bridges 1–1 Lewes
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Three Bridges win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Three Bridges win 33%)
55′⚽ GOAL · 9' Three Bridges 1–1 Lewes · B. Garzon
55′⚽ GOAL · 29' Three Bridges 1–1 Lewes · A. Ayodeji
60′We said Three Bridges at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–41–28
64′We said Three Bridges at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–45–26
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Three Bridges 1–2 Lewes
88′N. Fisher scores for Lewes on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Three Bridges win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Lewes win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
90′We said Three Bridges at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
FTFULL TIME Three Bridges 1–2 Lewes
FTThree Bridges 1–2 Lewes · Three Bridges win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Three Bridges win43%

Draw21%

Lewes win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Three Bridges

Lewes

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lewes	11	+5	22
20	Three Bridges	10	−10	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · three bridges winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market34%

Us43%

~~Market~~34%

We make Three Bridges a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · three bridges win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Three Bridges win	43%	34%	+9
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Lewes win	36%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	71%	60%	+11
Both teams to score	70%	63%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	87%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	50%	39%	+11
Three Bridges or draw	64%	59%	+4
Three Bridges clean sheet	18%	–	–
Lewes clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 4.9 3.9 2.3 1 5.3 8.1 7.3 4.3 2 4.7 8.0 6.9 4.1 3 3.0 5.1 4.5 2.6 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Three Bridges down, Lewes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,428 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Three Bridges at home: 2.25 scored, 3.25 conceded a game (last 4). Lewes away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Three Bridges, 1.76 for Lewes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Isthmian since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

THREE BRIDGES

DWLLDW2–2 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–1

LEWES

WLWLWW1–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	11	+17	27
2	Welling United	11	+10	24
3	Dartford	11	+6	24
4	Lewes	11	+5	22
5	Carshalton Athletic	13	−3	21
6	Ramsgate	11	+12	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
9	St Albans City	9	+5	17
10	Dulwich Hamlet	9	+6	16
11	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
12	Burgess Hill Town	9	+5	14
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
14	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
15	Aveley	11	−1	11
16	Wingate & Finchley	9	−6	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
18	Whyteleafe	11	−8	9
19	Maldon & Tiptree	12	−18	9
20	Three Bridges	10	−10	8
21	Whitehawk	11	−15	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	−18	4