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Three Bridges v Eastbourne Borough

Three Bridges

0–2Full time

Eastbourne Borough

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Three Bridges 0–2 Eastbourne Borough EASTBOURNE BOROUGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eastbourne Borough win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eastbourne Borough win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eastbourne Borough 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 31–20–49
1′KICK-OFF Three Bridges v Eastbourne Borough
5′A goal for Eastbourne Borough on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–16–69
5′We said Eastbourne Borough at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 15–16–69
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Three Bridges 0–1 Eastbourne Borough
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Eastbourne Borough win: 49% at kick-off, 69% now
7′J. Rees scores for Eastbourne Borough on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–69
12′We said Eastbourne Borough at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 14–16–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–18–70
45′HALF-TIME Three Bridges 0–1 Eastbourne Borough
46′SECOND HALF Three Bridges 0–1 Eastbourne Borough
59′We said Eastbourne Borough at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Eastbourne Borough win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
70′Eastbourne Borough score on 70′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Three Bridges 0–2 Eastbourne Borough
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Eastbourne Borough win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
71′Eastbourne Borough score on 69′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
71′We said Eastbourne Borough at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Eastbourne Borough win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
85′We said Eastbourne Borough at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Three Bridges 0–2 Eastbourne Borough
FTThree Bridges 0–2 Eastbourne Borough · Eastbourne Borough win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eastbourne Borough are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Three Bridges 31%, draw 20%, Eastbourne Borough 49%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Three Bridges v Eastbourne BoroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Three Bridges win31%

Draw20%

Eastbourne Borough win49%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Three Bridges

Eastbourne Borough

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eastbourne borough winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Eastbourne Borough a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Three Bridges v Eastbourne Borough~~1.68 – 2.17

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~20 v 7

~~The market · Eastbourne Borough win~~54% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eastbourne Borough win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Three Bridges win	31%	24%	+7
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Eastbourne Borough win	49%	54%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Both teams to score	71%	64%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	84%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	53%	45%	+8
Three Bridges or draw	51%	46%	+5
Three Bridges clean sheet	12%	–	–
Eastbourne Borough clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%

0123450 2.0 5.1 5.1 3.6 2.0 1 4.0 7.4 8.2 5.9 3.3 2 3.1 6.4 6.8 4.9 2.7 3 3.6 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Three Bridges down, Eastbourne Borough across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Three Bridges at home: 2.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Eastbourne Borough away: 1.75 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Three Bridges, 2.17 for Eastbourne Borough. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EAS 3–2 THR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug

THREE BRIDGES

LLDWLD0–4 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3

EASTBOURNE BOROUGH

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	12	+5	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	11	+5	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17
13	Whyteleafe	13	−2	15
14	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4