Stanway Rovers v Cray Wanderers prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stanway RoversDrawCray Wanderers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Cray Wanderers 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cray Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stanway Rovers 23%, draw 20%, Cray Wanderers 57%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Stanway Rovers v Cray WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stanway Rovers win23%

Draw20%

Cray Wanderers win57%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stanway Rovers

Cray Wanderers

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
22	Stanway Rovers	12	−23	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts CountyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 17:31 · Cray Wanderers, Altrincham

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cray wanderers winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Cray Wanderers a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stanway Rovers v Cray Wanderers~~1.31 – 2.16

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~22 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stanway Rovers win	23%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Cray Wanderers win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Stanway Rovers or draw	43%	–	–
Stanway Rovers clean sheet	12%	–	–
Cray Wanderers clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.0 7.3 7.3 5.2 2.8 1 4.6 8.4 9.2 6.6 3.6 2 2.8 5.7 6.0 4.3 2.3 3 2.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stanway Rovers down, Cray Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,447 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.4% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Stanway Rovers at home: 0.80 scored, 2.40 conceded a game (last 5). Cray Wanderers away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Stanway Rovers, 2.16 for Cray Wanderers. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug

STANWAY ROVERS

WLLLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 3–0

CRAY WANDERERS

WWLDWL2–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	13	+2	24
5	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
7	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
8	Chatham Town	12	+12	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	St Albans City	9	+5	17
12	Dulwich Hamlet	12	0	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	12	−23	4