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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Stanway Rovers v Cheshunt

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Stanway Rovers v Cheshunt

Stanway Rovers
3–0Full time
Cheshunt

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Stanway Rovers 3–0 Cheshunt CHESHUNT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cheshunt win46%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.750
The market’s Brier score0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cheshunt win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cheshunt was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stanway Rovers v Cheshunt
  4. 24′Stanway Rovers score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 57–24–19
  5. 24′We said Cheshunt at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Stanway Rovers 1–0 Cheshunt
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cheshunt win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Stanway Rovers win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Cheshunt win 43%)
  9. 26′24′: M. Fanimo on the scoresheet for Stanway Rovers, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 59–24–17
  11. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Cheshunt win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  12. 40′We said Cheshunt at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Stanway Rovers 1–0 Cheshunt
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Stanway Rovers 1–0 Cheshunt
  15. 55′We said Cheshunt at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Cheshunt win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  17. 70′We said Cheshunt at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  18. 86′Stanway Rovers find the net on 85′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Stanway Rovers 2–0 Cheshunt
  20. 91′A goal for Stanway Rovers on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 91′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Stanway Rovers 3–0 Cheshunt
  23. FTFULL TIME Stanway Rovers 3–0 Cheshunt
  24. FTStanway Rovers 3–0 Cheshunt · Cheshunt win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cheshunt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stanway Rovers 31%, draw 23%, Cheshunt 46%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Stanway Rovers v CheshuntBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stanway Rovers win31%
Draw23%
Cheshunt win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stanway Rovers

Cheshunt

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Cheshunt12−315
22Stanway Rovers12−234

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cheshunt winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
46% The market51%
Us46%
Market51%

We make Cheshunt a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stanway Rovers v Cheshunt1.31 – 1.68
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 12 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 4 v 1522 v 15
The market · Cheshunt win51% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Cheshunt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stanway Rovers win31%25%+6
Draw23%24%−1
Cheshunt win46%51%−5
Over 2.5 goals57%57%0
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals79%78%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%36%−1
Stanway Rovers or draw54%49%+5
Stanway Rovers clean sheet19%––
Cheshunt clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.9 9.0 7.1 4.0 1 7.2 10.5 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.1 5.9 3.3 3 3.1 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stanway Rovers down, Cheshunt across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsCHE 0–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 12 Sept

STANWAY ROVERS

LWLLLL0–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–2

CHESHUNT

LLWWWD0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town12+1728
2Welling United12+1227
3Lewes13+626
4Dartford13+224
5Ramsgate13+1222
6Eastbourne Borough11+1022
7Carshalton Athletic15−522
8Chatham Town12+1221
9Burgess Hill Town12+620
10Wingate & Finchley12+120
11St Albans City9+517
12Dulwich Hamlet12017
13Leatherhead11−215
14Whyteleafe14−315
15Cheshunt12−315
16Aveley13−114
17Maldon & Tiptree14−1713
18Cray Wanderers9+512
19Brentwood Town11−112
20Three Bridges13−139
21Whitehawk13−206
22Stanway Rovers12−234

The competition's standings before kick-off.