St Albans City v Burgess Hill Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

St Albans CityDrawBurgess Hill Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · St Albans City 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Albans City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St Albans City 49%, draw 21%, Burgess Hill Town 30%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on St Albans City v Burgess Hill TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

St Albans City win49%

Draw21%

Burgess Hill Town win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St Albans City

Burgess Hill Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

1Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
11	St Albans City	9	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st albans city winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make St Albans City a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St Albans City v Burgess Hill Town~~2.01 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 20~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St Albans City win	49%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Burgess Hill Town win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
St Albans City or draw	70%	–	–
St Albans City clean sheet	22%	–	–
Burgess Hill Town clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 4.9 3.5 1 6.3 8.5 6.7 3.5 2 5.9 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.9 5.9 4.4 2.3 4 2.0 3.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St Albans City down, Burgess Hill Town across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,447 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.4% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St Albans City at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Burgess Hill Town away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for St Albans City, 1.53 for Burgess Hill Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUR 0–1 STA · STA 3–4 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug

ST ALBANS CITY

LWDWDW0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 1–0

BURGESS HILL TOWN

DWDWLW2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	13	+2	24
5	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
7	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
8	Chatham Town	12	+12	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	St Albans City	9	+5	17
12	Dulwich Hamlet	12	0	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	12	−23	4