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Ramsgate v Stanway Rovers

Ramsgate

2–0Full time

Stanway Rovers

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 20 OCT · Southwood Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Ramsgate 2–0 Stanway Rovers RAMSGATE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ramsgate win~~68%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ramsgate win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ramsgate 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–17–16
1′KICK-OFF Ramsgate v Stanway Rovers
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Ramsgate win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
40′We said Ramsgate at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–27–17
45′We said Ramsgate at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–29–17
45′HALF-TIME Ramsgate 0–0 Stanway Rovers
46′SECOND HALF Ramsgate 0–0 Stanway Rovers
53′Ramsgate score on 53′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ramsgate 1–0 Stanway Rovers
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ramsgate win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
54′We said Ramsgate at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
61′We said Ramsgate at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
69′Ramsgate find the net on 69′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′We said Ramsgate at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ramsgate 2–0 Stanway Rovers
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Ramsgate win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
81′We said Ramsgate at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ramsgate 2–0 Stanway Rovers
FTRamsgate 2–0 Stanway Rovers · Ramsgate win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ramsgate are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ramsgate 68%, draw 16%, Stanway Rovers 15%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ramsgate v Stanway RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Ramsgate win68%

Draw16%

Stanway Rovers win15%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueSouthwood Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ramsgate

Stanway Rovers

7Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ramsgate winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

68% The market70%

Us68%

~~Market~~70%

We make Ramsgate a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ramsgate v Stanway Rovers~~2.58 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 19 v 4~~6 v 22

~~The market · Ramsgate win~~70% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ramsgate win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ramsgate win	68%	70%	−2
Draw	16%	19%	−3
Stanway Rovers win	15%	10%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	71%	63%	+8
Both teams to score	62%	52%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	51%	44%	+7
Ramsgate or draw	85%	90%	−5
Ramsgate clean sheet	32%	–	–
Stanway Rovers clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.3 3.2 1 6.7 6.9 4.1 2 8.1 9.0 5.1 3 6.9 7.6 4.3 4 4.4 4.9 2.8 5 2.3 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Ramsgate down, Stanway Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ramsgate at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stanway Rovers away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.58 goals for Ramsgate, 1.14 for Stanway Rovers. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–3 RAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

RAMSGATE

DWLWWL2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–2

STANWAY ROVERS

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	12	+5	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	11	+5	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17
13	Whyteleafe	13	−2	15
14	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4