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Maldon & Tiptree v Whyteleafe

Maldon & Tiptree

1–2Full time

Whyteleafe

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Maldon & Tiptree 1–2 Whyteleafe MALDON & TIPTREE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maldon & Tiptree win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maldon & Tiptree win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Maldon & Tiptree v Whyteleafe
6′Much as we predicted: Maldon & Tiptree was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
45′HALF-TIME Maldon & Tiptree 0–0 Whyteleafe
47′SECOND HALF Maldon & Tiptree 0–0 Whyteleafe
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Maldon & Tiptree 0–1 Whyteleafe
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Maldon & Tiptree 1–1 Whyteleafe
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Maldon & Tiptree 1–2 Whyteleafe
FTFULL TIME Maldon & Tiptree 1–2 Whyteleafe
FTMaldon & Tiptree 1–2 Whyteleafe · Maldon & Tiptree win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maldon & Tiptree win40%

Draw21%

Whyteleafe win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maldon & tiptree winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Maldon & Tiptree a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maldon & tiptree win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maldon & Tiptree win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Whyteleafe win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	67%	61%	+6
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	40%	+6
Maldon & Tiptree or draw	61%	61%	0
Maldon & Tiptree clean sheet	18%	–	–
Whyteleafe clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.0 5.8 4.6 2.7 1 5.9 8.9 7.8 4.5 2.0 2 4.8 8.0 6.7 3.9 3 2.8 4.7 4.0 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maldon & Tiptree down, Whyteleafe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Maldon & Tiptree at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Whyteleafe away: 0.40 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Maldon & Tiptree, 1.72 for Whyteleafe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

MALDON & TIPTREE

LLLLLL0–2 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 1–5 · 1–4 · 0–1

WHYTELEAFE

DLWDLL2–2 · 1–5 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4