Leatherhead v Stanway Rovers prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeatherheadDrawStanway Rovers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Leatherhead 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leatherhead are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leatherhead 52%, draw 21%, Stanway Rovers 27%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Leatherhead v Stanway RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Leatherhead win52%

Draw21%

Stanway Rovers win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leatherhead

Stanway Rovers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
21	Stanway Rovers	13	−20	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leatherhead winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Leatherhead a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leatherhead v Stanway Rovers~~1.96 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~13 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leatherhead win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Stanway Rovers win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Leatherhead or draw	73%	–	–
Leatherhead clean sheet	27%	–	–
Stanway Rovers clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 5.5 3.4 1 7.7 9.2 6.3 2.9 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.7 6.0 3.9 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leatherhead down, Stanway Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.3% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Leatherhead at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stanway Rovers away: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Leatherhead, 1.34 for Stanway Rovers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

LEATHERHEAD

LWDDLL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

STANWAY ROVERS

WLLLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	+13	24
5	Dartford	13	+2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	+5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	−6	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	−17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	−20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	−20	6