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Leatherhead v Cheshunt

Leatherhead

1–2Full time

Cheshunt

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Leatherhead 1–2 Cheshunt LEATHERHEAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leatherhead win~~42%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.645

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leatherhead win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Leatherhead v Cheshunt
5′Little has changed for our model: Leatherhead 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
45′HALF-TIME Leatherhead 0–0 Cheshunt
46′SECOND HALF Leatherhead 0–0 Cheshunt
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Leatherhead 0–1 Cheshunt
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Leatherhead 1–1 Cheshunt
FTFULL TIME Leatherhead 1–2 Cheshunt
FTLeatherhead 1–2 Cheshunt · Leatherhead win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leatherhead win42%

Draw23%

Cheshunt win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leatherhead winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market51%

Us42%

~~Market~~51%

We make Leatherhead a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leatherhead win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leatherhead win	42%	51%	−10
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Cheshunt win	35%	25%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−2
Leatherhead or draw	65%	75%	−10
Leatherhead clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cheshunt clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 7.6 5.1 2.5 1 8.3 10.5 7.7 3.7 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.9 3 3.3 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leatherhead down, Cheshunt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leatherhead at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cheshunt away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Leatherhead, 1.43 for Cheshunt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–0 LEA · LEA 1–2 CHE

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

LEATHERHEAD

WLWDDL1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–3

CHESHUNT

DDLLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4