Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Eastbourne Borough v Welling United

Eastbourne Borough v Welling United

Eastbourne Borough

1–0Full time

Welling United

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United EASTBOURNE BOROUGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eastbourne Borough win~~49%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eastbourne Borough win at 49%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Eastbourne Borough 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
4′KICK-OFF Eastbourne Borough v Welling United
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United
24′J. Rees scores for Eastbourne Borough on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Eastbourne Borough win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United
47′SECOND HALF Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United
FTFULL TIME Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United
FTEastbourne Borough 1–0 Welling United · Eastbourne Borough win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Eastbourne Borough win49%

Draw22%

Welling United win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eastbourne borough winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market44%

Us49%

~~Market~~44%

We make Eastbourne Borough a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · eastbourne borough win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eastbourne Borough win	49%	44%	+5
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Welling United win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Eastbourne Borough or draw	71%	69%	+2
Eastbourne Borough clean sheet	28%	–	–
Welling United clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.4 6.5 4.0 1 8.7 10.1 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.3 5.5 3.5 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eastbourne Borough down, Welling United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Eastbourne Borough at home: 2.20 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Welling United away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Eastbourne Borough, 1.30 for Welling United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

EASTBOURNE BOROUGH

LLLWWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–0

WELLING UNITED

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–4 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4