Dulwich Hamlet v Chatham Town prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Dulwich Hamlet 0–4 Chatham Town CHATHAM TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chatham Town win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.403

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chatham Town win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chatham Town 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 29–23–48
1′KICK-OFF Dulwich Hamlet v Chatham Town
23′Chatham Town find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–73
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Dulwich Hamlet 0–1 Chatham Town
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Chatham Town win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
24′We said Chatham Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 9–18–73
24′Chatham Town ahead on 22′ through T. Ladapo. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–73
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
34′A goal for Chatham Town on 34′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
34′We said Chatham Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dulwich Hamlet 0–2 Chatham Town
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Chatham Town win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Dulwich Hamlet 0–2 Chatham Town
46′SECOND HALF Dulwich Hamlet 0–2 Chatham Town
51′We said Chatham Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
57′Chatham Town score on 57′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
57′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Dulwich Hamlet 0–3 Chatham Town
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Chatham Town win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
58′56′: T. Ladapo on the scoresheet for Chatham Town, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
61′We said Chatham Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
87′Chatham Town find the net on 87′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Dulwich Hamlet 0–4 Chatham Town
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dulwich Hamlet 0–4 Chatham Town
FTDulwich Hamlet 0–4 Chatham Town · Chatham Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chatham Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dulwich Hamlet 29%, draw 23%, Chatham Town 48%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Dulwich Hamlet v Chatham TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dulwich Hamlet win29%

Draw23%

Chatham Town win48%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dulwich Hamlet

Chatham Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chatham town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Chatham Town a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dulwich Hamlet v Chatham Town~~1.21 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 18~~11 v 8

~~The market · Chatham Town win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chatham Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dulwich Hamlet win	29%	34%	−5
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Chatham Town win	48%	40%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Dulwich Hamlet or draw	52%	60%	−8
Dulwich Hamlet clean sheet	19%	–	–
Chatham Town clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.4 9.9 7.8 4.3 1 7.4 10.8 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 4.2 6.8 5.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dulwich Hamlet down, Chatham Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dulwich Hamlet at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chatham Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Dulwich Hamlet, 1.66 for Chatham Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CHA 3–1 DUL · DUL 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–0 DUL · DUL 2–2 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

DULWICH HAMLET

WWWLLD3–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–2

CHATHAM TOWN

LWLWWL0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	12	+5	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	11	+5	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17
13	Whyteleafe	13	−2	15
14	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4