Dulwich Hamlet v Carshalton Athletic

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dulwich Hamlet win at 46%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Dulwich Hamlet v Carshalton Athletic
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Dulwich Hamlet was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–31
4. 28′A goal for Dulwich Hamlet on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
5. 28′We published Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Dulwich Hamlet 1–0 Carshalton Athletic
7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
8. 29′O. Obi scores for Dulwich Hamlet on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
10. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dulwich Hamlet 1–1 Carshalton Athletic
11. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 40% now
12. 33′Carshalton Athletic score on 32′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–31–29
13. 35′34′: N. Young-Coombes on the scoresheet for Carshalton Athletic, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–32–29
14. 45′HALF-TIME Dulwich Hamlet 1–1 Carshalton Athletic
15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
16. 46′SECOND HALF Dulwich Hamlet 1–1 Carshalton Athletic
17. 51′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–26
18. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dulwich Hamlet win 34%)
19. 62′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–22
20. 63′Carshalton Athletic find the net on 62′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–22–71
21. 63′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–22–71
22. 63′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–22–71
23. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dulwich Hamlet 1–2 Carshalton Athletic
24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
25. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Carshalton Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
26. 67′A goal for Dulwich Hamlet on 66′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 26–54–20
27. 67′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 26–54–20
28. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Dulwich Hamlet 2–2 Carshalton Athletic
29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
30. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Carshalton Athletic win 20%)
31. 70′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–57–19
32. 72′N. Clunis scores for Dulwich Hamlet on 65′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 23–60–17
33. 76′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
34. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
35. 81′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–76–11
36. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Dulwich Hamlet win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
37. 91′We said Dulwich Hamlet at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
38. FTFULL TIME Dulwich Hamlet 2–2 Carshalton Athletic
39. FTDulwich Hamlet 2–2 Carshalton Athletic · Dulwich Hamlet win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.