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Dartford v Wingate & Finchley

Dartford

2–1Full time

Wingate & Finchley

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dartford 2–1 Wingate & Finchley DARTFORD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dartford win~~59%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dartford win at 59%.
3′KICK-OFF Dartford v Wingate & Finchley
6′Much as we predicted: Dartford was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Dartford 1–0 Wingate & Finchley
26′Dartford ahead on 19′ through B. Greenhalgh. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–6
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Dartford win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
45′HALF-TIME Dartford 1–0 Wingate & Finchley
46′SECOND HALF Dartford 1–0 Wingate & Finchley
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Dartford 1–1 Wingate & Finchley
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Dartford 2–1 Wingate & Finchley
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Wingate & Finchley
FTFULL TIME Dartford 2–1 Wingate & Finchley
FTDartford 2–1 Wingate & Finchley · Dartford win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dartford win59%

Draw20%

Wingate & Finchley win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dartford winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

59% The market62%

Us59%

~~Market~~62%

We make Dartford a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dartford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dartford win	59%	62%	−3
Draw	20%	21%	0
Wingate & Finchley win	21%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Dartford or draw	79%	82%	−3
Dartford clean sheet	32%	–	–
Wingate & Finchley clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 5.1 2.7 1 8.9 9.1 5.4 2.1 2 8.6 9.6 5.5 2.1 3 5.9 6.6 3.7 4 3.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dartford down, Wingate & Finchley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dartford at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wingate & Finchley away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Dartford, 1.14 for Wingate & Finchley. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WIN 3–1 DAR · DAR 1–2 WIN · WIN 1–2 DAR · DAR 2–3 WIN

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

DARTFORD

LWWWWL1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

WINGATE & FINCHLEY

DWWLLW2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4