Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Cray Wanderers v Lewes

Cray Wanderers v Lewes

Cray Wanderers

1–2Full time

Lewes

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes CRAY WANDERERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cray Wanderers win~~56%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.936

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cray Wanderers win at 56%.
4′KICK-OFF Cray Wanderers v Lewes
7′2′ and it is 0–1: T. Cox on the scoresheet for Lewes. 0–1 · 31–23–45
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Cray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 31% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Lewes win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Cray Wanderers win 31%)
28′Cray Wanderers ahead on 27′ through A. Yusuff. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–27–23
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cray Wanderers 1–1 Lewes
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 50% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Cray Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Lewes win 23%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Cray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes
45′HALF-TIME Cray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes
47′SECOND HALF Cray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes
FTFULL TIME Cray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes
FTCray Wanderers 1–2 Lewes · Cray Wanderers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cray Wanderers win56%

Draw20%

Lewes win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cray wanderers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

56% The market47%

Us56%

~~Market~~47%

We make Cray Wanderers a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cray wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cray Wanderers win	56%	47%	+9
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Lewes win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Cray Wanderers or draw	76%	71%	+5
Cray Wanderers clean sheet	29%	–	–
Lewes clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.1 3.0 1 8.0 9.0 5.9 2.5 2 7.7 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.2 6.4 4.0 4 2.7 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cray Wanderers down, Lewes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cray Wanderers at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lewes away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Cray Wanderers, 1.25 for Lewes. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CRA 3–0 LEW · LEW 2–2 CRA · LEW 4–3 CRA · CRA 1–3 LEW

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

CRAY WANDERERS

LWWLDW1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 5–1

LEWES

WWLWLW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4