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Cheshunt v Whitehawk

Cheshunt

1–1Full time

Whitehawk

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Cheshunt 1–1 Whitehawk CHESHUNT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cheshunt win~~51%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.931

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.997

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cheshunt win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cheshunt 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Cheshunt v Whitehawk
4′Little has changed for our model: Cheshunt 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Cheshunt 0–0 Whitehawk
46′SECOND HALF Cheshunt 0–0 Whitehawk
47′We said Cheshunt at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–23
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Cheshunt win 36%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–43–21
58′We said Cheshunt at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
65′PENALTY MISSED · 64' Cheshunt
66′We said Cheshunt at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
72′We said Cheshunt at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–15
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
77′Cheshunt find the net on 76′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
77′We said Cheshunt at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Cheshunt 1–0 Whitehawk
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 88% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Cheshunt win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
80′We said Cheshunt at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
87′We said Cheshunt at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′A goal for Whitehawk on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Cheshunt 1–1 Whitehawk
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Cheshunt win: 51% at kick-off, 5% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Cheshunt win 5%)
92′We said Cheshunt at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Cheshunt 1–1 Whitehawk
FTCheshunt 1–1 Whitehawk · Cheshunt win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cheshunt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cheshunt 51%, draw 23%, Whitehawk 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Cheshunt v WhitehawkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cheshunt win51%

Draw23%

Whitehawk win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cheshunt

Whitehawk

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 14 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
21	Whitehawk	12	−20	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cheshunt winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:44 · locked at kick-off

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make Cheshunt a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cheshunt v Whitehawk~~1.76 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~13 v 21

~~The market · Cheshunt win~~59% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cheshunt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheshunt win	51%	59%	−8
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Whitehawk win	26%	19%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Cheshunt or draw	74%	81%	−7
Cheshunt clean sheet	31%	–	–
Whitehawk clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.1 6.8 3.7 1 9.9 10.4 6.4 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.8 5.5 3.2 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheshunt down, Whitehawk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,432 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.7% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheshunt at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Whitehawk away: 1.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Cheshunt, 1.18 for Whitehawk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–0 WHI · WHI 1–3 CHE · CHE 1–4 WHI · WHI 0–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 31 Aug

CHESHUNT

DLLWWW1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

WHITEHAWK

LWLLLL2–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	11	+17	27
2	Lewes	12	+6	25
3	Welling United	11	+10	24
4	Dartford	11	+6	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	13	−3	21
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	10	+7	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	10	+4	16
12	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	−4	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
16	Whyteleafe	12	−3	12
17	Aveley	11	−1	11
18	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
19	Maldon & Tiptree	12	−18	9
20	Three Bridges	11	−11	8
21	Whitehawk	12	−20	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	−18	4