Cheshunt v Cray Wanderers prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Cray Wanderers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cheshunt 35%, draw 23%, Cray Wanderers 42%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Cheshunt v Cray WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Cheshunt win35%

Draw23%

Cray Wanderers win42%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cheshunt

Cray Wanderers

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cray wanderers winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Cray Wanderers a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cheshunt v Cray Wanderers~~1.48 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~15 v 18

~~The market · Cray Wanderers win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cray Wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheshunt win	35%	37%	−2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Cray Wanderers win	42%	39%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Cheshunt or draw	58%	61%	−3
Cheshunt clean sheet	20%	–	–
Cray Wanderers clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 7.7 5.9 3.3 1 7.0 10.1 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.8 6.3 3.5 3 2.4 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheshunt down, Cray Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheshunt at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cray Wanderers away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Cheshunt, 1.65 for Cray Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–1 CRA · CRA 0–0 CHE · CRA 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 CRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 22 Aug

CHESHUNT

LLWWWD0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

CRAY WANDERERS

WWLDWL2–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	12	+12	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Dartford	12	+5	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	14	−3	22
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	11	+8	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	11	+5	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	11	+4	17
12	Wingate & Finchley	11	−1	17
13	Whyteleafe	13	−2	15
14	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
15	Cheshunt	12	−3	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	−17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
20	Three Bridges	12	−11	9
21	Whitehawk	13	−20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	−21	4