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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Chatham Town v Welling United

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Chatham Town v Welling United

Chatham Town
3–2Full time
Welling United

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Chatham Town 3–2 Welling United CHATHAM TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chatham Town win60%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.242
The market’s Brier score0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chatham Town win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Chatham Town was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chatham Town v Welling United
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 41′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–19
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Chatham Town 0–0 Welling United
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Chatham Town 0–0 Welling United
  8. 50′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
  9. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–41–18
  10. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 58′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
  12. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Chatham Town win 41%)
  13. 62′Chatham Town find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  14. 62′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  15. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chatham Town 1–0 Welling United
  16. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
  17. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Chatham Town win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 46%)
  18. 64′A goal for Chatham Town on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  19. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chatham Town 2–0 Welling United
  20. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
  21. 65′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  22. 66′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  23. 67′K. Salami scores for Chatham Town on 65′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  24. 69′Welling United score on 69′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–2
  25. 69′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–2
  26. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chatham Town 2–1 Welling United
  27. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 86% now
  28. 74′Chatham Town find the net on 74′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 74′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  30. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Chatham Town 3–1 Welling United
  31. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
  32. 81′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 83′A goal for Welling United on 83′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 93–6–0
  35. 83′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–2 · 93–6–0
  36. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Chatham Town 3–2 Welling United
  37. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 93% now
  38. 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  39. 89′A goal for Welling United on 82′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Chatham Town 3–2 Welling United
  41. FTChatham Town 3–2 Welling United · Chatham Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chatham Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chatham Town 60%, draw 20%, Welling United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Chatham Town v Welling UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Chatham Town win60%
Draw20%
Welling United win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chatham Town

Welling United

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Welling United12+1227
8Chatham Town12+1221

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chatham town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 21 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
60% The market44%
Us60%
Market44%

We make Chatham Town a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chatham Town v Welling United2.00 – 1.04
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 12 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 21 v 278 v 2
The market · Chatham Town win44% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1524 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Chatham Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chatham Town win60%44%+16
Draw20%25%−5
Welling United win20%30%−10
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score55%61%−6
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals36%37%−1
Chatham Town or draw80%70%+10
Chatham Town clean sheet36%––
Welling United clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.0%
0123450 4.6 5.5 2.6 1 10.0 9.5 5.1 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 6.3 6.5 3.4 4 3.2 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chatham Town down, Welling United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsCHA 3–1 WEL · WEL 0–1 CHA · WEL 0–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 12 Sept

CHATHAM TOWN

WLWWLW3–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0

WELLING UNITED

WWWWLW4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town12+1728
2Welling United12+1227
3Lewes13+626
4Dartford13+224
5Ramsgate13+1222
6Eastbourne Borough11+1022
7Carshalton Athletic15−522
8Chatham Town12+1221
9Burgess Hill Town12+620
10Wingate & Finchley12+120
11St Albans City9+517
12Dulwich Hamlet12017
13Leatherhead11−215
14Whyteleafe14−315
15Cheshunt12−315
16Aveley13−114
17Maldon & Tiptree14−1713
18Cray Wanderers9+512
19Brentwood Town11−112
20Three Bridges13−139
21Whitehawk13−206
22Stanway Rovers12−234

The competition's standings before kick-off.