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Chatham Town v Welling United
Chatham Town
Welling UnitedNon League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Chatham Town win at 60%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Chatham Town was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Chatham Town v Welling United
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
- 41′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–19
- 45′HALF-TIME Chatham Town 0–0 Welling United
- 46′SECOND HALF Chatham Town 0–0 Welling United
- 50′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
- 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–41–18
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
- 58′We said Chatham Town at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
- 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Chatham Town win 41%)
- 62′Chatham Town find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 62′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chatham Town 1–0 Welling United
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Chatham Town win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 46%)
- 64′A goal for Chatham Town on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chatham Town 2–0 Welling United
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
- 65′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 66′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 67′K. Salami scores for Chatham Town on 65′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 69′Welling United score on 69′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–2
- 69′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–2
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chatham Town 2–1 Welling United
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 86% now
- 74′Chatham Town find the net on 74′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 74′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Chatham Town 3–1 Welling United
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
- 81′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 83′A goal for Welling United on 83′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 93–6–0
- 83′We published Chatham Town at 60%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–2 · 93–6–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Chatham Town 3–2 Welling United
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chatham Town win: 60% at kick-off, 93% now
- 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
- 89′A goal for Welling United on 82′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
- FTFULL TIME Chatham Town 3–2 Welling United
- FTChatham Town 3–2 Welling United · Chatham Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Chatham Town are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Chatham Town 60%, draw 20%, Welling United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off
Chatham Town win60%
Welling United win20%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 9
Match timeline
All events
Chatham TownMIN
Welling UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Chatham Town
Welling United
Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Chatham Town a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 58%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham Town win | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Welling United win | 20% | 30% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Chatham Town or draw | 80% | 70% | +10 |
| Chatham Town clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Welling United clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 12 Sept
CHATHAM TOWN
WELLING UNITED
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 12 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | +6 | 26 |
| 4 | Dartford | 13 | +2 | 24 |
| 5 | Ramsgate | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | −5 | 22 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 12 | +12 | 21 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 11 | St Albans City | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | Dulwich Hamlet | 12 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | −2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | −3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 12 | −3 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | −1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 14 | −17 | 13 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | −1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | −13 | 9 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 13 | −20 | 6 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 12 | −23 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Enfield Town
Lewes
Dartford
Ramsgate
Eastbourne Borough
Carshalton Athletic
Burgess Hill Town
Wingate & Finchley
St Albans City
Dulwich Hamlet
Leatherhead
Whyteleafe
Cheshunt
Aveley
Maldon & Tiptree
Cray Wanderers
Brentwood Town
Three Bridges
Whitehawk
Stanway Rovers