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Chatham Town v Brentwood Town

Chatham Town

3–0Full time

Brentwood Town

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chatham Town 3–0 Brentwood Town CHATHAM TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chatham Town win~~55%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.309

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chatham Town win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chatham Town was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–24
1′KICK-OFF Chatham Town v Brentwood Town
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Chatham Town 1–0 Brentwood Town
45′HALF-TIME Chatham Town 1–0 Brentwood Town
46′SECOND HALF Chatham Town 1–0 Brentwood Town
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chatham Town 2–0 Brentwood Town
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Chatham Town 3–0 Brentwood Town
FTFULL TIME Chatham Town 3–0 Brentwood Town
FTChatham Town 3–0 Brentwood Town · Chatham Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chatham Town win55%

Draw21%

Brentwood Town win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chatham town winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

55% The market49%

Us55%

~~Market~~49%

We make Chatham Town a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chatham town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chatham Town win	55%	49%	+6
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Brentwood Town win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	62%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Chatham Town or draw	75%	73%	+2
Chatham Town clean sheet	28%	–	–
Brentwood Town clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 5.0 3.1 1 7.6 8.9 6.0 2.7 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 5.0 6.3 4.1 4 2.6 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chatham Town down, Brentwood Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chatham Town at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Brentwood Town away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Chatham Town, 1.31 for Brentwood Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRE 0–0 CHA · CHA 0–1 BRE

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

CHATHAM TOWN

WLLWLW3–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

BRENTWOOD TOWN

LLLLWW1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4