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Burgess Hill Town v Dulwich Hamlet

Burgess Hill Town

2–0Full time

Dulwich Hamlet

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Burgess Hill Town 2–0 Dulwich Hamlet BURGESS HILL TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burgess Hill Town win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burgess Hill Town win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Burgess Hill Town was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
1′KICK-OFF Burgess Hill Town v Dulwich Hamlet
22′22′ and it is 1–0: Burgess Hill Town have scored. 1–0 · 67–20–14
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Burgess Hill Town 1–0 Dulwich Hamlet
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Burgess Hill Town win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
23′We published Burgess Hill Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 67–20–13
45′We published Burgess Hill Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
45′HALF-TIME Burgess Hill Town 1–0 Dulwich Hamlet
46′SECOND HALF Burgess Hill Town 1–0 Dulwich Hamlet
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Burgess Hill Town win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 22' Burgess Hill Town 1–0 Dulwich Hamlet · J. Daly
60′Burgess Hill Town find the net on 59′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Burgess Hill Town 2–0 Dulwich Hamlet
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Burgess Hill Town win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
61′We published Burgess Hill Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
62′We published Burgess Hill Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
90′We published Burgess Hill Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Burgess Hill Town 2–0 Dulwich Hamlet
FTBurgess Hill Town 2–0 Dulwich Hamlet · Burgess Hill Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Burgess Hill Town win43%

Draw22%

Dulwich Hamlet win35%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Burgess Hill Town

Dulwich Hamlet

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Dulwich Hamlet	9	+6	16
12	Burgess Hill Town	9	+5	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · burgess hill town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Burgess Hill Town a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · burgess hill town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgess Hill Town win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Dulwich Hamlet win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	60%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	36%	+7
Burgess Hill Town or draw	65%	68%	−3
Burgess Hill Town clean sheet	21%	–	–
Dulwich Hamlet clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.4 6.2 4.5 2.4 1 6.9 9.5 7.7 4.0 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 3.3 5.0 3.8 2.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgess Hill Town down, Dulwich Hamlet across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,428 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burgess Hill Town at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dulwich Hamlet away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Burgess Hill Town, 1.57 for Dulwich Hamlet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DUL 2–0 BUR · BUR 1–1 DUL

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

BURGESS HILL TOWN

DWDDWD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

DULWICH HAMLET

LDWWWL0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	11	+17	27
2	Welling United	11	+10	24
3	Dartford	11	+6	24
4	Lewes	11	+5	22
5	Carshalton Athletic	13	−3	21
6	Ramsgate	11	+12	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
9	St Albans City	9	+5	17
10	Dulwich Hamlet	9	+6	16
11	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
12	Burgess Hill Town	9	+5	14
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
14	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
15	Aveley	11	−1	11
16	Wingate & Finchley	9	−6	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
18	Whyteleafe	11	−8	9
19	Maldon & Tiptree	12	−18	9
20	Three Bridges	10	−10	8
21	Whitehawk	11	−15	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	−18	4