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Burgess Hill Town v Aveley

Burgess Hill Town

1–1Full time

Aveley

Non League Premier - Isthmian · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Burgess Hill Town 1–1 Aveley AVELEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aveley win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.939

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aveley win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF Burgess Hill Town v Aveley
6′Much as we predicted: Aveley was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–23–41
45′HALF-TIME Burgess Hill Town 0–0 Aveley
47′SECOND HALF Burgess Hill Town 0–0 Aveley
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Burgess Hill Town 0–1 Aveley
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Burgess Hill Town 1–1 Aveley
FTFULL TIME Burgess Hill Town 1–1 Aveley
FTBurgess Hill Town 1–1 Aveley · Aveley win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Burgess Hill Town win37%

Draw21%

Aveley win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aveley winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Aveley a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aveley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgess Hill Town win	37%	39%	−3
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Aveley win	42%	36%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	70%	62%	+8
Both teams to score	69%	64%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	49%	42%	+7
Burgess Hill Town or draw	58%	64%	−7
Burgess Hill Town clean sheet	16%	–	–
Aveley clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.5 5.5 4.8 3.0 1 5.1 8.4 8.1 5.1 2.4 2 4.1 7.5 6.9 4.3 2.1 3 2.4 4.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgess Hill Town down, Aveley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,416 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 6.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burgess Hill Town at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aveley away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Burgess Hill Town, 1.88 for Aveley. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~6.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUR 2–5 AVE · AVE 3–3 BUR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian

BURGESS HILL TOWN

DDWDDW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1

AVELEY

LWLLLL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Welling United	10	+11	24
2	Enfield Town	9	+13	21
3	Dartford	10	+5	21
4	Carshalton Athletic	11	−1	21
5	Lewes	10	+4	19
6	Ramsgate	10	+9	16
7	Dulwich Hamlet	8	+9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	+7	16
9	Chatham Town	9	+6	15
10	Leatherhead	10	−1	15
11	St Albans City	8	+4	14
12	Burgess Hill Town	8	+5	13
13	Cray Wanderers	8	+6	12
14	Cheshunt	10	−4	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	−5	11
16	Aveley	10	−1	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	−1	9
18	Maldon & Tiptree	11	−17	9
19	Whyteleafe	10	−9	6
20	Three Bridges	9	−12	5
21	Whitehawk	10	−12	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	−16	4