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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Isthmian › Brentwood Town v Dartford

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Brentwood Town v Dartford

Brentwood Town
3–0Full time
Dartford

Non League Premier - Isthmian · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Brentwood Town 3–0 Dartford DARTFORD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dartford win41%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.613
The market’s Brier score0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dartford win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dartford 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 37–22–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Brentwood Town v Dartford
  4. 7′A goal for Brentwood Town on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–20–20
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Brentwood Town 1–0 Dartford
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Dartford win: 41% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Brentwood Town win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Dartford win 40%)
  8. 8′A. Freeman scores for Brentwood Town on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–20–20
  9. 9′We said Dartford at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–20–19
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 63–22–15
  11. 34′We said Dartford at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Brentwood Town 1–0 Dartford
  13. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Dartford win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Brentwood Town 1–0 Dartford
  15. 53′We said Dartford at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  16. 69′We said Dartford at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  17. 75′Brentwood Town score on 75′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  18. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Brentwood Town 2–0 Dartford
  19. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Dartford win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
  20. 76′74′: A. Cerulli on the scoresheet for Brentwood Town, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  21. 92′Brentwood Town find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Brentwood Town 3–0 Dartford
  23. FTFULL TIME Brentwood Town 3–0 Dartford
  24. FTBrentwood Town 3–0 Dartford · Dartford win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dartford just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Brentwood Town 37%, draw 22%, Dartford 41%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Brentwood Town v DartfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Brentwood Town win37%
Draw22%
Dartford win41%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brentwood Town

Dartford

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Dartford12+524
19Brentwood Town10−49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dartford winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
41% The market36%
Us41%
Market36%

We make Dartford a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brentwood Town v Dartford1.59 – 1.68
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 AugW2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 9 v 2419 v 4
The market · Dartford win36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:08
Our probability · Dartford win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brentwood Town win37%38%−1
Draw22%25%−3
Dartford win41%36%+5
Over 2.5 goals63%57%+6
Both teams to score64%59%+5
Over 1.5 goals83%79%+4
Over 3.5 goals41%35%+6
Brentwood Town or draw59%64%−5
Brentwood Town clean sheet19%––
Dartford clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.6 6.9 5.4 3.0 1 6.5 9.7 8.3 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.6 3.7 3 2.6 4.2 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Brentwood Town down, Dartford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsDAR 1–0 BRE · DAR 3–2 BRE · BRE 1–1 DAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug

BRENTWOOD TOWN

LLLWWL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

DARTFORD

WWWLWL3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enfield Town12+1728
2Welling United12+1227
3Lewes13+626
4Dartford12+524
5Carshalton Athletic14−322
6Ramsgate12+1019
7Eastbourne Borough10+819
8Chatham Town11+818
9Burgess Hill Town11+517
10St Albans City9+517
11Dulwich Hamlet11+417
12Wingate & Finchley11−117
13Whyteleafe13−215
14Leatherhead11−215
15Cheshunt12−315
16Aveley13−114
17Maldon & Tiptree14−1713
18Cray Wanderers9+512
19Brentwood Town10−49
20Three Bridges12−119
21Whitehawk13−206
22Stanway Rovers11−214

The competition's standings before kick-off.