Aveley v Dartford prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AveleyDrawDartford

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aveley 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aveley are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aveley 41%, draw 23%, Dartford 36%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Aveley v DartfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aveley win41%

Draw23%

Dartford win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aveley

Dartford

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dartford	13	+2	24
16	Aveley	13	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aveley winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Aveley a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aveley v Dartford~~1.59 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 14 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 24~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aveley win	41%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Dartford win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Aveley or draw	64%	–	–
Aveley clean sheet	24%	–	–
Dartford clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 7.4 5.1 2.5 1 8.0 10.5 7.9 3.9 2 6.0 8.6 6.2 3.0 3 3.2 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aveley down, Dartford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.3% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aveley at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dartford away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Aveley, 1.46 for Dartford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DAR 2–0 AVE · AVE 1–1 DAR · DAR 1–2 AVE · AVE 0–1 DAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 14 Sept

AVELEY

LLLDWL3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

DARTFORD

WWLWLL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	12	+17	28
2	Welling United	13	+11	27
3	Lewes	13	+6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	+13	24
5	Dartford	13	+2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	+12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	+10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	−5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	+6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	+1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	+5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	−3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	−6	15
16	Aveley	13	−1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	−17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	−1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	−13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	−20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	−20	6