Aveley v Chatham Town prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Aveley 1–0 Chatham Town CHATHAM TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chatham Town win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.655

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.559

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chatham Town win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chatham Town 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 35–23–42
1′KICK-OFF Aveley v Chatham Town
5′Little has changed for our model: Chatham Town 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 35–24–42
45′HALF-TIME Aveley 0–0 Chatham Town
46′SECOND HALF Aveley 0–0 Chatham Town
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chatham Town win 33%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Chatham Town win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–42–31
57′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 26–43–30
60′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 25–46–29
70′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 20–56–23
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Chatham Town win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
75′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
80′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Chatham Town win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
84′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–82–9
86′A goal for Aveley on 86′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
86′We said Chatham Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Aveley 1–0 Chatham Town
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Chatham Town win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Aveley win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
89′F. Mampolo scores for Aveley on 85′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
FTFULL TIME Aveley 1–0 Chatham Town
FTAveley 1–0 Chatham Town · Chatham Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chatham Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aveley 35%, draw 23%, Chatham Town 42%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Aveley v Chatham TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aveley win35%

Draw23%

Chatham Town win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aveley

Chatham Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
17	Aveley	11	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chatham town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Chatham Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aveley v Chatham Town~~1.46 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~17 v 8

~~The market · Chatham Town win~~36% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chatham Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aveley win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Chatham Town win	42%	36%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	60%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Aveley or draw	58%	64%	−6
Aveley clean sheet	20%	–	–
Chatham Town clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.3 7.9 6.1 3.3 1 7.2 10.3 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.7 6.2 3.4 3 2.4 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aveley down, Chatham Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,432 Non League Premier - Isthmian matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Isthmian matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.7% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aveley at home: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chatham Town away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Aveley, 1.63 for Chatham Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–1 AVE · AVE 0–2 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Isthmian this season · since 29 Aug

AVELEY

WLLLLD2–0 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

CHATHAM TOWN

LLWLWW2–3 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enfield Town	11	+17	27
2	Lewes	12	+6	25
3	Welling United	11	+10	24
4	Dartford	11	+6	24
5	Carshalton Athletic	13	−3	21
6	Ramsgate	12	+10	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	+8	19
8	Chatham Town	10	+9	18
9	Burgess Hill Town	10	+7	17
10	St Albans City	9	+5	17
11	Dulwich Hamlet	10	+4	16
12	Leatherhead	11	−2	15
13	Cheshunt	11	−3	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	−4	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	+5	12
16	Whyteleafe	12	−3	12
17	Aveley	11	−1	11
18	Brentwood Town	10	−4	9
19	Maldon & Tiptree	12	−18	9
20	Three Bridges	11	−11	8
21	Whitehawk	12	−20	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	−18	4