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Yeovil Town v Altrincham

Yeovil Town

1–2Full time

Altrincham

National League · SAT 24 OCT · Huish Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Yeovil Town 1–2 Altrincham YEOVIL TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yeovil Town win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.733

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yeovil Town win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yeovil Town 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Yeovil Town v Altrincham
13′We said Yeovil Town at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Yeovil Town 1–0 Altrincham
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Yeovil Town win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
14′Yeovil Town find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–9
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Yeovil Town
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Altrincham
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Yeovil Town win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′SECOND HALF Yeovil Town 1–0 Altrincham
46′HALF-TIME Yeovil Town 1–0 Altrincham
49′We said Yeovil Town at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' A. Barlow · Altrincham
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Yeovil Town · On: M. Obeng · Off: J. Daly
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yeovil Town · On: O. Dean · Off: S. Spasov
65′We said Yeovil Town at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′We said Yeovil Town at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Yeovil Town 1–1 Altrincham
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Yeovil Town win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Yeovil Town win 81%)
70′A goal for Altrincham on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–60–18
73′C. Kirk scores for Altrincham on 69′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–64–16
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Altrincham · On: K. Dennis · Off: L. Farrell
74′We said Yeovil Town at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–15
80′We said Yeovil Town at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Yeovil Town win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Yeovil Town at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
85′We said Yeovil Town at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–8–92
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Yeovil Town 1–2 Altrincham
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Yeovil Town win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Altrincham win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 84%)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Altrincham · On: R. Raymond · Off: M. Kosylo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Altrincham · On: E. Jones · Off: S. Barnes
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Yeovil Town · On: Z. Westbrooke · Off: J. Powell
90′Altrincham score on 89′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Altrincham
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Yeovil Town
95′Yeovil Town are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Altrincham · On: L. Weaver · Off: C. Kirk
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Altrincham · On: J. Hinchy · Off: A. Barlow
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Altrincham
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Yeovil Town
99′1–2 at the end. Our 44% on Yeovil Town misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Yeovil Town 1–2 Altrincham
FTYeovil Town 1–2 Altrincham · Yeovil Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeovil Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yeovil Town 44%, draw 26%, Altrincham 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Yeovil Town v AltrinchamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Yeovil Town win44%

Draw26%

Altrincham win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueHuish Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yeovil Town

Altrincham

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24

In the news

from the pressAll ›

BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts CountyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 17:31 · Cray Wanderers, Altrincham, Notts County

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeovil town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Yeovil Town a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yeovil Town v Altrincham~~1.50 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 24~~4 v 6

~~The market · Yeovil Town win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yeovil Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yeovil Town win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Altrincham win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Yeovil Town or draw	69%	72%	−3
Yeovil Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Altrincham clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 7.9 4.9 2.0 1 9.7 12.0 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 8.8 5.4 2.2 3 3.7 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yeovil Town down, Altrincham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yeovil Town at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Altrincham away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Yeovil Town, 1.22 for Altrincham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–1 YEO · YEO 1–0 ALT · ALT 2–1 YEO · YEO 0–0 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

YEOVIL TOWN

DWWDWW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 6–0

ALTRINCHAM

WWWWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	+12	28
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
14	Carlisle	13	+3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	−6	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	13	−8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4