Worthing v Southend prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WorthingDrawSouthend

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Southend 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Southend just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Worthing 37%, draw 23%, Southend 39%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Worthing v SouthendBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Worthing win37%

Draw23%

Southend win39%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueSussex Transport Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Worthing

Southend

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · southend winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Southend a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Worthing v Southend~~1.57 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 28~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Southend win

Published at 40%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Worthing win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Southend win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Worthing or draw	61%	–	–
Worthing clean sheet	21%	–	–
Southend clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.7 5.4 2.9 1 6.6 10.5 8.2 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 2.8 4.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Worthing down, Southend across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Worthing at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Southend away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Worthing, 1.61 for Southend. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

WORTHING

WWDWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 2–1

SOUTHEND

WLDWWD6–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4