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Worthing v Solihull Moors

Worthing

5–0Full time

Solihull Moors

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Worthing 5–0 Solihull Moors WORTHING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Worthing win~~53%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.255

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Worthing win at 53%.
3′KICK-OFF Worthing v Solihull Moors
11′Little has changed for our model: Worthing 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
31′C. Adjetey-Brew scores for Worthing on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
31′⚽ GOAL · 22' Worthing 1–0 Solihull Moors
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Worthing win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 29' Worthing 2–0 Solihull Moors · C. Adjetey-Brew (assist J. Young)
37′R. Coleman De-Graft scores for Worthing on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Worthing win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
40′34′ and it is 3–0: Worthing have scored. 3–0 · 98–1–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 34' Worthing 3–0 Solihull Moors
45′40′ and it is 3–0: R. Aguiar on the scoresheet for Worthing. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Worthing 3–0 Solihull Moors
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Solihull Moors · On: M. Johnson · Off: J. Tiensia
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Solihull Moors · On: B. Wodskou · Off: M. Carson
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Solihull Moors · On: N. Ford · Off: M. Metcalfe
48′We said Worthing at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Solihull Moors
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Worthing 4–0 Solihull Moors · R. Aguiar
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Worthing 4–0 Solihull Moors
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Worthing 4–0 Solihull Moors
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: D. Hutchinson · Off: C. Kendall
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: S. Packham · Off: R. Aguiar
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: D. Hutchinson · Off: C. Kendall
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: S. Packham · Off: R. Aguiar
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Worthing 4–0 Solihull Moors
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: D. Johnson-Fisher · Off: J. Young
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: D. Hutchinson · Off: C. Kendall
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Worthing · On: S. Packham · Off: R. Aguiar
73′⚽ GOAL · 70' Worthing 4–0 Solihull Moors
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Worthing · On: B. Smith · Off: R. Coleman De-Graft
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Worthing 5–0 Solihull Moors · C. Adjetey-Brew
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Worthing · On: E. Sutton · Off: C. Adjetey-Brew
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Worthing 5–0 Solihull Moors
FTFULL TIME Worthing 5–0 Solihull Moors
FTWorthing 5–0 Solihull Moors · Worthing win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Worthing win53%

Draw22%

Solihull Moors win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Sussex Transport Community Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Worthing

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Seymour

2 J. Colbran

5 J. Cook

6 J. Moore

28 C. Waller

7 R. Coleman De-Graft

4 J. Wadham

15 R. Aguiar

3 C. Adjetey-Brew

27 J. Young

24 C. Kendall

Coach · Adam Hinshelwood

Substitutes

33 · R. Egan

16 · S. Packham

17 · B. Smith

10 · D. Hutchinson

11 · A. Nathaniel-George

21 · E. Sutton

9 · D. Johnson-Fisher

Solihull Moors

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Metcalfe

23 T. Warren

26 T. French

6 A. Whitmore

15 M. Carson

4 J. Andrews

21 O. Rutherford

8 S. High

7 J. Sbarra

29 J. Tiensia

9 J. Wakeling

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Ford

20 · R. Shipston

22 · B. Wodskou

25 · F. Hoti

34 · E. Kachunga

35 · M. Johnson

24 · C. Pinnington

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Worthing

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Seymour

2 J. Colbran

5 J. Cook

6 J. Moore

28 C. Waller

7 R. Coleman De-Graft

4 J. Wadham

15 R. Aguiar

3 C. Adjetey-Brew

27 J. Young

24 C. Kendall

Coach · Adam Hinshelwood

Substitutes

33 · R. Egan

16 · S. Packham

17 · B. Smith

10 · D. Hutchinson

11 · A. Nathaniel-George

21 · E. Sutton

9 · D. Johnson-Fisher

Solihull Moors

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Metcalfe

23 T. Warren

26 T. French

6 A. Whitmore

15 M. Carson

4 J. Andrews

21 O. Rutherford

8 S. High

7 J. Sbarra

29 J. Tiensia

9 J. Wakeling

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Ford

20 · R. Shipston

22 · B. Wodskou

25 · F. Hoti

34 · E. Kachunga

35 · M. Johnson

24 · C. Pinnington

Our number · worthing winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

53% The market59%

Us53%

~~Market~~59%

We make Worthing a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · worthing win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Worthing win	53%	59%	−5
Draw	22%	21%	0
Solihull Moors win	25%	20%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Worthing or draw	75%	80%	−5
Worthing clean sheet	27%	–	–
Solihull Moors clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 4.6 3.1 1 7.1 9.4 6.1 2.7 2 7.2 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.8 6.3 4.1 4 2.5 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Worthing down, Solihull Moors across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Worthing at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Solihull Moors away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Worthing, 1.33 for Solihull Moors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

WORTHING

DWWWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

SOLIHULL MOORS

LWLLWL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4