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Woking v Harrogate Town

Woking

0–1Full time

Harrogate Town

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Kingfield Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Woking 0–1 Harrogate Town WOKING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Woking win~~43%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.685

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Woking win at 43%.
3′KICK-OFF Woking v Harrogate Town
11′Much as we predicted: Woking was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–33
21′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Harrogate Town
27′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Harrogate Town
31′25′ and it is 0–1: Harrogate Town have scored. 0–1 · 15–23–62
31′⚽ GOAL · 25' Woking 0–1 Harrogate Town
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Woking win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Harrogate Town win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Woking win 15%)
38′We said Woking at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
39′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Woking
41′32′ and it is 0–1: E. Taylor on the scoresheet for Harrogate Town. 0–1 · 13–23–64
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Woking win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
46′SECOND HALF Woking 0–1 Harrogate Town
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Woking · On: T. Akinola · Off: C. Okoli
58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Woking · On: A. Georgiou · Off: T. Hinds
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Woking · On: L. Dulson · Off: A. O'Brien
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Woking · On: H. Sohna · Off: J. Kelly
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Harrogate Town · On: G. Thomson · Off: W. McGowan
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Harrogate Town · On: S. McCoulsky · Off: B. Dolaghan
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Harrogate Town · On: C. McGuckin · Off: E. Taylor
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Woking · On: T. Harris · Off: M. Ward
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Harrogate Town
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Woking
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Woking
FTFULL TIME Woking 0–1 Harrogate Town
FTWoking 0–1 Harrogate Town · Woking win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Woking win43%

Draw24%

Harrogate Town win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Kingfield Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Woking

Formation not confirmed

22 W. Jaaskelainen

14 T. Hinds

5 T. Odusina

4 C. Okoli

6 S. Ogie

23 T. Akinola

8 R. Syla

10 A. O'Brien

9 J. Kelly

11 M. Ward

32 J. Marquis

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · H. Sohna

16 · T. Akinola

18 · L. Dulson

20 · T. Harris

26 · S. Turner

30 · A. Georgiou

1 · V. Reyes

Harrogate Town

Formation not confirmed

34 L. Hutchinson

26 G. Horton

16 S. Dreyer

4 A. Baptiste

24 L. Cass

11 W. McGowan

14 M. Williams

3 E. Bristow

21 E. Taylor

23 B. Dolaghan

17 J. Hmami

Coach · Simon Weaver

Substitutes

1 · M. Oxley

6 · W. Burrell

7 · G. Thomson

9 · S. McCoulsky

19 · M. Craig

27 · B. Fox

35 · C. McGuckin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Woking

Formation not confirmed

22 W. Jaaskelainen

14 T. Hinds

5 T. Odusina

4 C. Okoli

6 S. Ogie

23 T. Akinola

8 R. Syla

10 A. O'Brien

9 J. Kelly

11 M. Ward

32 J. Marquis

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · H. Sohna

16 · T. Akinola

18 · L. Dulson

20 · T. Harris

26 · S. Turner

30 · A. Georgiou

1 · V. Reyes

Harrogate Town

Formation not confirmed

34 L. Hutchinson

26 G. Horton

16 S. Dreyer

4 A. Baptiste

24 L. Cass

11 W. McGowan

14 M. Williams

3 E. Bristow

21 E. Taylor

23 B. Dolaghan

17 J. Hmami

Coach · Simon Weaver

Substitutes

1 · M. Oxley

6 · W. Burrell

7 · G. Thomson

9 · S. McCoulsky

19 · M. Craig

27 · B. Fox

35 · C. McGuckin

Our number · woking winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make Woking a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · woking win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Woking win	43%	32%	+11
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Harrogate Town win	33%	42%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Woking or draw	67%	58%	+9
Woking clean sheet	25%	–	–
Harrogate Town clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 6.7 4.8 2.3 1 7.7 11.0 7.6 3.6 2 6.4 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Woking down, Harrogate Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Woking at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Harrogate Town away: 1.60 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Woking, 1.41 for Harrogate Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

WOKING

WDDWLW5–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 2–4 · 3–1

HARROGATE TOWN

WLLWWW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4