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Wealdstone v Yeovil Town

Wealdstone

0–6Full time

Yeovil Town

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Grosvenor Vale

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Wealdstone 0–6 Yeovil Town WEALDSTONE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wealdstone win~~42%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wealdstone win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF Wealdstone v Yeovil Town
5′Little has changed for our model: Wealdstone 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
24′Wealdstone are down to ten from 21′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 39–30–31
25′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Wealdstone
30′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Wealdstone · On: E. Johnson · Off: O. Olomola
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' D. Baptiste · Wealdstone
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Wealdstone 0–1 Yeovil Town
36′J. Daly scores for Yeovil Town on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
36′⚽ GOAL · 29' Wealdstone 0–1 Yeovil Town · J. Daly
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Wealdstone win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Yeovil Town win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Wealdstone win 13%)
39′We said Wealdstone at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–23–64
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Wealdstone win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–65
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Yeovil Town
46′SECOND HALF Wealdstone 0–1 Yeovil Town
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Wealdstone 0–2 Yeovil Town · J. Daly
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wealdstone 0–2 Yeovil Town
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wealdstone 0–2 Yeovil Town
67′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wealdstone 0–2 Yeovil Town
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Wealdstone 0–3 Yeovil Town · J. Daly
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Wealdstone 0–3 Yeovil Town
70′⚽ GOAL · 68' Wealdstone 0–3 Yeovil Town
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Wealdstone 0–3 Yeovil Town · B. McGavin
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wealdstone · On: D. Conroy · Off: F. Okenabirhie
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wealdstone · On: J. Newton · Off: R. Maher
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wealdstone 0–3 Yeovil Town
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wealdstone 0–4 Yeovil Town · B. McGavin
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Yeovil Town · On: L. Ayina · Off: H. Muller
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Yeovil Town · On: J. Gubbins · Off: J. Norville-Williams
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wealdstone · On: C. Uchenna · Off: J. Wells-Morrison
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wealdstone · On: T. Newton · Off: A. Kanu
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Wealdstone 0–5 Yeovil Town · B. McGavin
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Wealdstone 0–5 Yeovil Town
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Wealdstone 0–6 Yeovil Town
92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Yeovil Town
93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Wealdstone
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Wealdstone
93′PENALTY MISSED · 94' Yeovil Town
FTFULL TIME Wealdstone 0–6 Yeovil Town
FTWealdstone 0–6 Yeovil Town · Wealdstone win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wealdstone win42%

Draw25%

Yeovil Town win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Grosvenor Vale

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Wealdstone

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Baptiste

11 D. Chesters

12 A. Francis-Clarke

22 C. McAvoy

32 A. Kanu

4 J. Wells-Morrison

20 M. Oni

26 F. Okenabirhie

31 R. Maher

9 O. Olomola

7 L. Norris

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · E. Johnson

3 · J. Newton

5 · D. Conroy

15 · A. Henry

16 · C. Uchenna

27 · T. Newton

29 · A. Kaunda

Yeovil Town

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Barker

5 J. Kingdon

16 B. Radcliffe

3 J. Norville-Williams

12 A. Davies

14 B. McGavin

4 H. Muller

10 R. Jones

11 J. Daly

19 S. Spasov

20 J. Powell

Coach · Billy Rowley

Substitutes

22 · M. Gould

6 · L. Ayina

7 · M. Obeng

9 · S. Walker

15 · J. Gubbins

18 · O. Dean

27 · C. Lennon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Wealdstone

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Baptiste

11 D. Chesters

12 A. Francis-Clarke

22 C. McAvoy

32 A. Kanu

4 J. Wells-Morrison

20 M. Oni

26 F. Okenabirhie

31 R. Maher

9 O. Olomola

7 L. Norris

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · E. Johnson

3 · J. Newton

5 · D. Conroy

15 · A. Henry

16 · C. Uchenna

27 · T. Newton

29 · A. Kaunda

Yeovil Town

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Barker

5 J. Kingdon

16 B. Radcliffe

3 J. Norville-Williams

12 A. Davies

14 B. McGavin

4 H. Muller

10 R. Jones

11 J. Daly

19 S. Spasov

20 J. Powell

Coach · Billy Rowley

Substitutes

22 · M. Gould

6 · L. Ayina

7 · M. Obeng

9 · S. Walker

15 · J. Gubbins

18 · O. Dean

27 · C. Lennon

Our number · wealdstone winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Wealdstone a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wealdstone win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wealdstone win	42%	32%	+10
Draw	25%	27%	−1
Yeovil Town win	33%	41%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−2
Wealdstone or draw	67%	59%	+8
Wealdstone clean sheet	27%	–	–
Yeovil Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 7.7 5.1 2.3 1 8.9 11.8 7.6 3.3 2 6.8 8.7 5.7 2.5 3 3.4 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wealdstone down, Yeovil Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wealdstone at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Yeovil Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Wealdstone, 1.31 for Yeovil Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WEA 0–2 YEO · YEO 0–2 WEA · YEO 1–2 WEA · WEA 0–3 YEO

Form · last six in National League

WEALDSTONE

WLLWDL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

YEOVIL TOWN

LDWWDW1–4 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4