Tamworth v Scunthorpe prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TamworthDrawScunthorpe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Tamworth 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tamworth just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tamworth 41%, draw 23%, Scunthorpe 37%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Tamworth v ScunthorpeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tamworth win41%

Draw23%

Scunthorpe win37%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueThe Lamb Ground

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tamworth

Scunthorpe

10Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tamworth winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Tamworth a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tamworth v Scunthorpe~~1.73 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~20 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tamworth win

Published at 40%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tamworth win	41%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Scunthorpe win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Tamworth or draw	63%	–	–
Tamworth clean sheet	20%	–	–
Scunthorpe clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.8 5.7 4.7 2.5 1 6.1 9.9 7.8 4.3 2 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.6 3 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tamworth down, Scunthorpe across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tamworth at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Scunthorpe away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Tamworth, 1.63 for Scunthorpe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SCU 3–1 TAM · TAM 1–2 SCU · SCU 0–1 TAM · TAM 1–2 SCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

TAMWORTH

LWLWWL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

SCUNTHORPE

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4