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Tamworth v Barrow

Tamworth

1–2Full time

Barrow

National League · SAT 10 OCT · The Lamb Ground

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Tamworth 1–2 Barrow BARROW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barrow win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barrow win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Tamworth v Barrow
9′Much as we predicted: Barrow was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
46′SECOND HALF Tamworth 0–0 Barrow
47′SECOND HALF Tamworth 0–0 Barrow
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Barrow
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Tamworth
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tamworth 0–1 Barrow
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Tamworth 0–1 Barrow
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Tamworth
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Tamworth 0–2 Barrow · R. Harper
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Tamworth 0–2 Barrow
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tamworth · On: B. Acquaye · Off: R. Calder
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tamworth · On: J. Hutchinson · Off: T. McGlinchey
75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Barrow · On: I. Marriott · Off: C. Edwards
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Barrow
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Barrow · On: A. Alimi-Adetoro · Off: A. Allen
86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' P. Kalambayi · Barrow
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Barrow · On: I. Cameron · Off: A. Reid
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Tamworth 1–2 Barrow · C. Edwards
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tamworth 1–2 Barrow
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Tamworth · On: G. Kelly · Off: O. Dyson
93′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tamworth 1–2 Barrow · T. Kurtaran
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Tamworth
FTFULL TIME Tamworth 1–2 Barrow
FTTamworth 1–2 Barrow · Barrow win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tamworth win38%

Draw24%

Barrow win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Lamb Ground

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tamworth

Formation not confirmed

39 R. Lovett

3 T. Handley

29 H. Carson

12 J. Rye

5 T. Parkes

14 O. Dyson

4 T. Kurtaran

19 T. McGlinchey

30 M. Roberts

16 R. Calder

10 K. Donnelly

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · T. Lyttle

7 · B. Acquaye

24 · S. Agina

18 · J. Cullinane-Liburd

23 · J. Hutchinson

28 · G. Kelly

21 · J. Macaulay

Barrow

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Winterbottom

2 M. Oakley

6 K. Digie

25 P. Kalambayi

36 T. Latty-Fairweather

33 X. Benjamin

19 A. Allen

5 C. Edwards

26 R. Harper

14 S. Thompson

9 A. Reid

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Alimi-Adetoro

23 · D. Mooney

10 · K. Ward

27 · I. Marriott

11 · G. Walker

32 · M. Lane

18 · I. Cameron

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tamworth

Formation not confirmed

39 R. Lovett

3 T. Handley

29 H. Carson

12 J. Rye

5 T. Parkes

14 O. Dyson

4 T. Kurtaran

19 T. McGlinchey

30 M. Roberts

16 R. Calder

10 K. Donnelly

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · T. Lyttle

7 · B. Acquaye

24 · S. Agina

18 · J. Cullinane-Liburd

23 · J. Hutchinson

28 · G. Kelly

21 · J. Macaulay

Barrow

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Winterbottom

2 M. Oakley

6 K. Digie

25 P. Kalambayi

36 T. Latty-Fairweather

33 X. Benjamin

19 A. Allen

5 C. Edwards

26 R. Harper

14 S. Thompson

9 A. Reid

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Alimi-Adetoro

23 · D. Mooney

10 · K. Ward

27 · I. Marriott

11 · G. Walker

32 · M. Lane

18 · I. Cameron

Our number · barrow winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Barrow a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barrow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tamworth win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Barrow win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	61%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
Tamworth or draw	61%	61%	0
Tamworth clean sheet	20%	–	–
Barrow clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.6 5.4 2.9 1 6.5 10.5 8.2 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.4 3.5 3 2.7 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tamworth down, Barrow across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tamworth at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Barrow away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Tamworth, 1.61 for Barrow. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

TAMWORTH

LLWLWW1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 1–0

BARROW

DLWWWW2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4