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Sutton Utd v Boreham Wood

Sutton Utd

0–2Full time

Boreham Wood

National League · FRI 9 OCT · VBS Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Sutton Utd 0–2 Boreham Wood BOREHAM WOOD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boreham Wood win~~55%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boreham Wood win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Boreham Wood 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
1′KICK-OFF Sutton Utd v Boreham Wood
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Sutton Utd
45′SECOND HALF Sutton Utd 0–0 Boreham Wood
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Boreham Wood · On: W. Wright · Off: T. White
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: D. Urpens · Off: J. Moore-Taylor
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Boreham Wood · On: W. Wright · Off: T. White
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Boreham Wood · On: T. Golden · Off: J. Clarke
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sutton Utd · On: J. Francis · Off: O. Mussa
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sutton Utd 0–1 Boreham Wood
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sutton Utd 0–1 Boreham Wood
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Sutton Utd
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sutton Utd 0–2 Boreham Wood · C. Bush
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Sutton Utd
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sutton Utd · On: K. Donkor · Off: B. Amartey
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' S. Folarin · Sutton Utd
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sutton Utd 0–2 Boreham Wood
FTFULL TIME Sutton Utd 0–2 Boreham Wood
FTSutton Utd 0–2 Boreham Wood · Boreham Wood win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sutton Utd win23%

Draw22%

Boreham Wood win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · VBS Community Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sutton Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Brits

5 W. Nightingale

15 J. Moore-Taylor

27 B. Brookes

6 C. Bell

7 E. Osadebe

8 J. Taylor

14 O. Mussa

26 B. Amartey

9 T. Babalola

16 B. Njoku

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · C. Haigh

2 · K. Donkor

3 · B. Topalloj

11 · S. Folarin

12 · D. Urpens

18 · D. Ogbonna

20 · J. Francis

Boreham Wood

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Curd

2 J. Clarke

6 C. O'Connell

5 C. Bush

3 O. Bainbridge

23 R. Booty

4 T. White

34 B. Whitfield

8 Z. Brunt

7 L. Richardson

27 J. Bird

Coach · Luke Garrard

Substitutes

11 · T. Allarakhia

9 · D. Cashman

17 · T. Golden

25 · O. Kensdale

21 · M. Marshall-Miranda

14 · C. Wilkinson

30 · W. Wright

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sutton Utd

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Brits

5 W. Nightingale

15 J. Moore-Taylor

27 B. Brookes

6 C. Bell

7 E. Osadebe

8 J. Taylor

14 O. Mussa

26 B. Amartey

9 T. Babalola

16 B. Njoku

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · C. Haigh

2 · K. Donkor

3 · B. Topalloj

11 · S. Folarin

12 · D. Urpens

18 · D. Ogbonna

20 · J. Francis

Boreham Wood

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Curd

2 J. Clarke

6 C. O'Connell

5 C. Bush

3 O. Bainbridge

23 R. Booty

4 T. White

34 B. Whitfield

8 Z. Brunt

7 L. Richardson

27 J. Bird

Coach · Luke Garrard

Substitutes

11 · T. Allarakhia

9 · D. Cashman

17 · T. Golden

25 · O. Kensdale

21 · M. Marshall-Miranda

14 · C. Wilkinson

30 · W. Wright

Our number · boreham wood winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

55% The market52%

Us55%

~~Market~~52%

We make Boreham Wood a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · boreham wood win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sutton Utd win	23%	22%	+1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Boreham Wood win	55%	52%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	53%	+8
Both teams to score	60%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	39%	33%	+6
Sutton Utd or draw	45%	48%	−3
Sutton Utd clean sheet	15%	–	–
Boreham Wood clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.5 8.2 8.0 5.3 2.7 1 5.1 10.0 9.5 6.2 3.1 2 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.7 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sutton Utd down, Boreham Wood across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,880 National League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sutton Utd at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Boreham Wood away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sutton Utd, 1.97 for Boreham Wood. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 1–0 SUT · SUT 3–4 BOR

Form · last six in National League

SUTTON UTD

LWDDLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

BOREHAM WOOD

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	12	+19	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	−2	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4