Sutton Utd v Aldershot Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sutton UtdDrawAldershot Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Sutton Utd 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sutton Utd are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutton Utd 42%, draw 24%, Aldershot Town 34%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Sutton Utd v Aldershot TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sutton Utd win42%

Draw24%

Aldershot Town win34%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueVBS Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutton Utd

Aldershot Town

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sutton utd winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Sutton Utd a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sutton Utd v Aldershot Town~~1.58 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 18 v 18~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sutton Utd win	42%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aldershot Town win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Sutton Utd or draw	66%	–	–
Sutton Utd clean sheet	25%	–	–
Aldershot Town clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 7.0 5.0 2.4 1 7.8 11.2 7.8 3.7 2 6.3 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sutton Utd down, Aldershot Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sutton Utd at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aldershot Town away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Sutton Utd, 1.42 for Aldershot Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALD 2–2 SUT · SUT 0–0 ALD · ALD 1–1 SUT · SUT 1–1 ALD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

SUTTON UTD

DDLDLL1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

ALDERSHOT TOWN

LWLLLL0–1 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4