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Solihull Moors v Carlisle
Solihull Moors
CarlisleNational League · SAT 24 OCT · Damson Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Carlisle win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Carlisle 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 27–22–50
- 1′KICK-OFF Solihull Moors v Carlisle
- 31′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Carlisle · On: K. Richardson · Off: T. Anderson
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
- 47′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Solihull Moors win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Carlisle win 40%)
- 48′A goal for Solihull Moors on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
- 48′HALF-TIME Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
- 49′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
- 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Solihull Moors
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 61′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Carlisle · On: D. Ajiboye · Off: J. Williams
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: M. Azeez · Off: T. Jenks
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: R. Galvin · Off: B. Nicholson
- 68′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–52–29
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Solihull Moors 1–1 Carlisle
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 29% now
- 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Solihull Moors win 70%)
- 69′Carlisle score on 69′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–53–28
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Solihull Moors · On: O. Rutherford · Off: M. Johnson
- 74′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–60–24
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Carlisle · On: S. Wearne · Off: R. Linney
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Solihull Moors · On: J. Sbarra · Off: R. Woods
- 77′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
- 77′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 1–13–86
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Solihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 86% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Carlisle win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 64%)
- 78′Carlisle find the net on 77′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
- 82′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Solihull Moors · On: E. Kachunga · Off: S. High
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Solihull Moors · On: F. Hoti · Off: B. Wodskou
- 88′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Carlisle
- 94′1–2 at the end. Our 50% on Carlisle comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Solihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle
- FTSolihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle · Carlisle win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Carlisle are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Solihull Moors 27%, draw 22%, Carlisle 50%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Solihull Moors win27%
Carlisle win50%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 14
VenueDamson Park
Match timeline
All events
Solihull MoorsMIN
CarlisleEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Solihull Moors
Carlisle
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Carlisle a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors win | 27% | 19% | +8 |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | +1 |
| Carlisle win | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Solihull Moors or draw | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Solihull Moors clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
| Carlisle clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept
SOLIHULL MOORS
CARLISLE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | +12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | +17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | +9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | +1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | −4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | −4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | −3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | −6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | −9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | −8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | −6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | −22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | −23 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Boreham Wood
Harrogate Town
Southend
Yeovil Town
Worthing
Altrincham
AFC Fylde
Barrow
AFC Hornchurch
FC Halifax Town
Kidderminster Harriers
Aldershot Town
Sutton Utd
Woking
Forest Green
Eastleigh
Tamworth
Wealdstone
Hartlepool
Boston United
Scunthorpe
Gateshead