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Model 1.2

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Solihull Moors v Carlisle

Solihull Moors
1–2Full time
Carlisle

National League · SAT 24 OCT · Damson Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Solihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle CARLISLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Carlisle win50%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.372
The market’s Brier score0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Carlisle win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Carlisle 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 27–22–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Solihull Moors v Carlisle
  4. 31′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Carlisle · On: K. Richardson · Off: T. Anderson
  5. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
  7. 47′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
  8. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
  9. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
  10. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Solihull Moors win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Carlisle win 40%)
  11. 48′A goal for Solihull Moors on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
  12. 48′HALF-TIME Solihull Moors 1–0 Carlisle
  13. 49′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  14. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Solihull Moors
  15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  16. 61′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Carlisle · On: D. Ajiboye · Off: J. Williams
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: M. Azeez · Off: T. Jenks
  19. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: R. Galvin · Off: B. Nicholson
  20. 68′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–52–29
  21. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Solihull Moors 1–1 Carlisle
  22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 29% now
  23. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Solihull Moors win 70%)
  24. 69′Carlisle score on 69′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–53–28
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Solihull Moors · On: O. Rutherford · Off: M. Johnson
  26. 74′We said Carlisle at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–60–24
  27. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Carlisle · On: S. Wearne · Off: R. Linney
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Solihull Moors · On: J. Sbarra · Off: R. Woods
  29. 77′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  30. 77′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  31. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Solihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle
  32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 86% now
  33. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Carlisle win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 64%)
  34. 78′Carlisle find the net on 77′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  35. 82′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  36. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Carlisle win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Solihull Moors · On: E. Kachunga · Off: S. High
  38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Solihull Moors · On: F. Hoti · Off: B. Wodskou
  39. 88′We said Carlisle at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  40. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Carlisle
  41. 94′1–2 at the end. Our 50% on Carlisle comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  42. FTFULL TIME Solihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle
  43. FTSolihull Moors 1–2 Carlisle · Carlisle win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carlisle are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solihull Moors 27%, draw 22%, Carlisle 50%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Solihull Moors v CarlisleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Solihull Moors win27%
Draw22%
Carlisle win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueDamson Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solihull Moors

Carlisle

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Carlisle13+317
23Solihull Moors13−227

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carlisle winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
50% The market60%
Us50%
Market60%

We make Carlisle a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Solihull Moors v Carlisle1.38 – 1.94
Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 7 v 1723 v 14
The market · Carlisle win60% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:15
Our probability · Carlisle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Solihull Moors win27%19%+8
Draw22%21%+1
Carlisle win50%60%−10
Over 2.5 goals64%65%−1
Both teams to score63%61%+2
Over 1.5 goals84%83%+1
Over 3.5 goals42%45%−3
Solihull Moors or draw50%40%+10
Solihull Moors clean sheet15%––
Carlisle clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.9 7.0 6.8 4.4 2.2 1 5.0 9.7 9.1 5.9 2.9 2 3.5 6.6 6.3 4.0 3 3.1 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Solihull Moors down, Carlisle across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsSOL 3–3 CAR · CAR 1–1 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

SOLIHULL MOORS

WLLWLL1–0 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 0–5

CARLISLE

DLLWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boreham Wood13+2135
2Harrogate Town13+1228
3Southend13+1227
4Yeovil Town13+1725
5Worthing13+924
6Altrincham13+124
7AFC Fylde13+623
8Barrow13+621
9AFC Hornchurch13−421
10FC Halifax Town13+720
11Kidderminster Harriers13+320
12Aldershot Town13+218
13Sutton Utd13−418
14Carlisle13+317
15Woking13015
16Forest Green12−315
17Eastleigh13−615
18Tamworth13−914
19Wealdstone13−712
20Hartlepool13−712
21Boston United13−812
22Scunthorpe12−610
23Solihull Moors13−227
24Gateshead13−234

The competition's standings before kick-off.