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Model 1.2

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Scunthorpe v Woking

Scunthorpe
2–3Full time
Woking

National League · SAT 24 OCT · Attis Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Scunthorpe 2–3 Woking SCUNTHORPE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Scunthorpe win40%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.654
The market’s Brier score0.630

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Scunthorpe win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Scunthorpe was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Scunthorpe v Woking
  4. 7′We said Scunthorpe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–21–60
  5. 7′Woking find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–60
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Scunthorpe 0–1 Woking
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Scunthorpe win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
  8. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Woking win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Scunthorpe win 40%)
  9. 10′Woking ahead on 8′ through A. O'Brien. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–61
  10. 25′We said Scunthorpe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
  11. 25′A goal for Woking on 25′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
  12. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Scunthorpe 0–2 Woking
  13. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Scunthorpe win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
  14. 26′We said Scunthorpe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Scunthorpe 0–2 Woking
  16. 47′HALF-TIME Scunthorpe 0–2 Woking
  17. 51′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  18. 55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Scunthorpe 0–3 Woking
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Scunthorpe win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  21. 56′Woking score on 56′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  22. 60′55′: A. O'Brien on the scoresheet for Woking, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  23. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Woking · On: V. Reyes · Off: W. Jaaskelainen
  24. 60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Woking
  25. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Scunthorpe · On: A. Beestin · Off: P. Jones
  26. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Woking
  27. 62′A red card for Woking on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  28. 62′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  29. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Scunthorpe 1–3 Woking
  30. 63′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Scunthorpe
  31. 64′Scunthorpe find the net on 63′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Woking · On: S. Turner · Off: J. Kelly
  33. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Woking
  34. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Scunthorpe
  35. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Scunthorpe · On: J. Butterfield · Off: J. Richards
  36. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Scunthorpe · On: L. Brennan · Off: J. Starbuck
  37. 83′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  38. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Scunthorpe 2–3 Woking
  39. 84′A goal for Scunthorpe on 84′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–91
  40. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Scunthorpe
  41. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Scunthorpe · On: H. Parker · Off: T. Denton
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Scunthorpe · On: R. Clayton · Off: D. Batty
  43. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Woking
  44. 100′Full time, 2–3. We called Scunthorpe at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
  45. 100′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Woking · On: L. Dulson · Off: N. Paul Lavaly
  46. FTFULL TIME Scunthorpe 2–3 Woking
  47. FTScunthorpe 2–3 Woking · Scunthorpe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Scunthorpe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Scunthorpe 40%, draw 25%, Woking 35%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Scunthorpe v WokingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Scunthorpe win40%
Draw25%
Woking win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueAttis Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Scunthorpe

Woking

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Woking13015
22Scunthorpe12−610

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scunthorpe winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
40% The market38%
Us40%
Market38%

We make Scunthorpe a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Scunthorpe v Woking1.48 – 1.35
Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 10 v 1522 v 15
The market · Scunthorpe win38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:15
Our probability · Scunthorpe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Scunthorpe win40%38%+2
Draw25%26%−1
Woking win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals54%57%−3
Both teams to score57%60%−3
Over 1.5 goals77%78%−1
Over 3.5 goals32%36%−4
Scunthorpe or draw65%64%+1
Scunthorpe clean sheet26%––
Woking clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.3 7.9 5.4 2.5 1 8.6 11.8 7.8 3.6 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Scunthorpe down, Woking across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsWOK 1–2 SCU · SCU 3–1 WOK · SCU 0–2 WOK · WOK 2–0 SCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 Sept

SCUNTHORPE

WLLWLL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

WOKING

DDWLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boreham Wood13+2135
2Harrogate Town13+1228
3Southend13+1227
4Yeovil Town13+1725
5Worthing13+924
6Altrincham13+124
7AFC Fylde13+623
8Barrow13+621
9AFC Hornchurch13−421
10FC Halifax Town13+720
11Kidderminster Harriers13+320
12Aldershot Town13+218
13Sutton Utd13−418
14Carlisle13+317
15Woking13015
16Forest Green12−315
17Eastleigh13−615
18Tamworth13−914
19Wealdstone13−712
20Hartlepool13−712
21Boston United13−812
22Scunthorpe12−610
23Solihull Moors13−227
24Gateshead13−234

The competition's standings before kick-off.